'Impossible to rely on tariffs': GOP strategist reveals why Trump is 'wrong in important ways'

06 February

President Donald Trump often praises GOP President William McKinley, who was assassinated in 1901, for his policy on tariffs.

In 1885, McKinley — a Civil War veteran who served as Ohio governor and was in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1885-1991 — declared, "I am a high protectionist." And Trump exalts McKinley's presidency as a model for the tariffs he has in mind, which include 25 percent tariffs on all goods entering the United States from Canada and Mexico — although Trump agreed to delay those tariffs by 30 days.

But veteran GOP strategist Karl Rove, in an op-ed published by the Washington Post on February 6, argues that "on tariffs," Trump "gets McKinley wrong in important ways."

"For starters," Rove explains, "McKinley presided over Washington in a very different time. Federal spending in 1900 — the year of his presidential reelection — was 3 percent of gross domestic product. Last year, federal outlays were 23 percent of GDP. It would be impossible to rely on tariffs on nearly $3.3 trillion in foreign imports to fund last year's more than $6.8 trillion federal budget."

Rove, author of the 2015 book "The Triumph of William McKinley: Why the Election of 1896 Still Matters," notes that tariffs were a "budgetary staple" in the late 19th Century and early 20th Century, bringing in "49 percent of federal revenue" from 1863-1913 — compared to bringing in "only 1.9 percent" in 2024.

Rove argues, "Mr. Trump also doesn't grasp that McKinley's tariff views shifted as our economy grew and changed….. (McKinley) warned them that if tariffs were too high, 'you diminish importations and, to that extent, diminish the revenue.' Moreover, he saw the effect of industrialization and technological innovation on America's economy."

The GOP strategist adds, "These raised production, increasing the importance of trade to the nation's prosperity. The U.S. needed more markets. The change in his thinking became apparent while he worked as (House) Ways and Means chairman to pass a tariff bill in 1890."

Republican Vice President Teddy Roosevelt was sworn in as president when McKinley died on September 14, 1901.

"It's impossible to know what would have happened if he had survived," Rove writes. "But it is clear that he recognized reciprocal low tariffs were important to U.S. prosperity. That's still true today. Let's hope his fan in the Oval Office realizes it."

Karl Rove's full op-ed for the Wall Street Journal is available at this link (subscription required).

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