Data expert explains why Trump’s approval numbers are even more 'horrible' than you think

U.S. President Donald Trump reacts, as he arrives at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., September 26, 2025. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

Eight months into his second presidency, Donald Trump continues to be adored by his hardcore MAGA base. But when polls take into account voters on the whole — Republicans, Democrats, independents, and third party members combined — Trump is struggling.

Recent polls show Trump's approval rating at 39 percent (the Associated Press), 40 percent (Gallup), 41 percent (Reuters) or 38 percent (Quinnipiac).

The New Republic's Greg Sargent discussed Trump's approval numbers with Lakshya Jain (co-founder of the data firm Split Ticket) in an episode of the "Daily Blast" podcast posted on September 29. And Jain laid out some reasons why these polls are "horrible" for Trump at this point in his second presidency.

"This is the second term, but it's still the period in time at which the president's approval ratings are generally at their highest," Jain told Sargent. "You know, (former President) Joe Biden ended his tenure extremely poorly in the court of public opinion, but it's really important to remember that Biden was not this unpopular at this point in time in his first year. Trump is at levels that have only really been approached by Trump 1.0. That's it. That's the only historical comparable. But Greg, what's interesting to me, if I may, is that the disapproval this time is of a completely different nature — and I would argue a far more damaging nature than the first time around, because the first time around, it was centered around his abuse of the office, or so to say, people thinking he was unfit to lead the country. But people liked the economy."

Jain continued, "People really liked the economy under Trump. His economic numbers were consistently positive or break even the first time around. This time, what’s happening is people really hate Trump not for the abuse of office. They hate him for the economy."

The Split Ticker co-founder noted that inflation proved to be a major liability for former President Joe Biden — and now, the economy is hurting Trump's poll numbers.

"This time around," Jain told Sargent, "they think he's been obsessed with things like the woke culture wars and about persecuting his political opponents, and not focused enough on issues that they care about. You know, when people say like, 'the American people don't care about all these things that elites think they do' — I mean, that goes both ways, right?.... It is also true that Trump trying to focus all of his efforts on, you know, prosecuting his political opponents and going after them is also seen poorly because people don't care about that. They're like, 'Why are you focused on that? My bills are so high.'"

When Sargent noted that "the Democratic Party is polling as badly as it has in a very long time," Jain responded, "Democrats are unpopular because Democratic voters dislike the Democratic Party for not doing enough to stand up to Trump. But people have taken that to mean that the Republican party enjoys an edge with independents and with swing voters. And that is just not true."

Jain continued, "Look, whether a Democrat voter disagrees with the Democratic Party does not change the reality that, you know, among independents where the battle is generally won and lost, Democrats actually lead the Republicans. And that's a very big thing no one talks about."

Listen to the full New Republic podcast at this link or read the transcript here.

From Your Site Articles