CNN data guru reveals key metric that suggests midterm wipeout for Republicans
In 2024, male voters were the most important voting bloc in President Donald Trump’s victory. Two years later, with the economy floundering, however, men are abandoning him in droves.
According to CNN statistical analyst Harry Enten, the latest poll numbers are not looking good for the president. In the last election, Trump won among men by a margin of 13 percentage points, but today, his net approval among men is -7 points — a 20-point plunge overall. That’s not only bad for Trump's approval ratings, but for the GOP in general.
“I think it is very difficult for Republicans to do well in this midterm cycle if Donald Trump is underwater with men,” said Enten.
The largest change is among men under 45. While in 2020 young men voted Biden by a large plurality, by 2024 they had made a massive shift toward Trump, allowing him to win among young men by 5 points. Today, however, that number has free-fallen to -19 points — a massive 24 point drop.
“Those men that had switched their allegiances over to the Republican party are seeing what the president is doing,” said Enten. “They don’t like what the president is doing, and they have very much soured on the president.”
When asked what issue was most driving that change, the answer was simple. In the famous words of Democratic strategist James Carville, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
According to polls, in 2024, male voters trusted Trump with cost-of-living issues by a margin of 10 points. Today, he’s down by a staggering 30 points among the same demographic.
In recent weeks, anger over Trump’s handling of the economy has been discussed primarily in the context of his war on Iran, which has driven up the cost of gas — and therefore just about everything else — precipitously. But even before the war, opinions of the economic situation were dismal due to a combination of tariff-driven inflation, a poor job market, and other factors.
None of this bodes well for Republicans heading into the midterms, with polls indicating that the Democrats stand to win in elections across the country.
“There is no way on God’s green Earth that the Republican party can hold onto the House of Representatives if this number holds,” declared Enten. “That means see you later to that Republican House majority, and maybe that Senate majority as well.”