A sign reading "Cluck Cluck TACO" outside the White House after U.S. President Donald Trump cut his G7 trip short and returned as the Israel-Iran air war continues, in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 17, 2025.
Over the course of President Donald Trump’s second term, a phrase has emerged to describe his tendency to back down in the face of a challenge: “Trump Always Chickens Out,” or “TACO.” Now with a ceasefire suspending hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, many are pointing to what appear to be major concessions made by the president, prompting some to argue that this wasn’t a case of “TACO,” but “surrender.”
As Bulwark contributor Bill Kristol — who has spent decades working in conservative politics — wrote on Wednesday, Trump began the war by declaring that there would be “no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” But now with a ceasefire in place, “Iran hasn’t unconditionally surrendered. It hasn’t even conditionally surrendered. It’s agreed to a ceasefire followed by negotiations. These negotiations will be based not on Iranian surrender but, as Trump said last night, on a ten-point proposal from Iran that Trump believes ‘is a workable basis on which to negotiate.’”
In other words, it’s a deal, not an Iranian surrender. But according to Kristol, it’s more than that: “for the United States of America, Trump’s war has been a defeat and a warning.”
He explained that it’s been a defeat in many regards. “We know that the Iranian regime remains in place,” and that “the mullahs and the IRGC remain in control of Iran.” “We know that the Iranian regime still has its enriched uranium,” that “it still has functional missile and drone capabilities,” and that it’s likely Russia and China will be "willing to rearm Iran." “Primary and secondary sanctions on Iran seem likely to be relaxed or even lifted," which will deliver a major financial boon to Tehran. And while the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, “it’s unclear whether it will remain an international waterway, as it was before, or whether Iran will be able to charge fees or tolls for passage.” More clear, however, is Iran’s ability to “cause significant damage to the global economy.”
As Kristol quoted distinguished military analyst Phillips O’Brien, “It’s a total fold by Trump… What a waste all this was.”
Beyond all that, wrote Kristol, “Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China.”
Kristol also noted that the war served as a “warning” that “thirty-three more months of an increasingly reckless and unhinged Trump in control of the executive branch of the United States poses too great a risk.” The Founders of the Constitution, asserted Kristol, provided a solution: “impeachment, conviction, and removal from office.”