Donald Trump attends the America First Policy Institute gala at Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., November 14, 2024. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo
Experts have been alarmed by a trend that is becoming increasingly apparent: as President Donald Trump’s approval rating has plummeted, he’s persisted in his unpopular conduct. This isn’t usually how it works. According to political analyst Brian Beutler, “When democratic politicians become unpopular, they try to understand why, then they try to mend things. They know it’s important, existential in some cases, to regain their lost support, in part or in whole. People like Trump, on the other hand — fiends and enemies of democracy — merely see greater urgency to steal power.”
Beutler says that both Trump and the Republican Party have already shown their willingness to go down such a path. “Republicans have stolen perhaps 10 House seats already, before a single general-election ballot has been cast,” he notes, while Trump already “defaults to out-and-out fraud, making calls on speakerphone to various state officials, and asking them to nullify ballots or stuff ballot boxes enough to flip outcomes.”
For their part, Beutler warns that Democrats “don’t seem to know how to respond,” and are hoping that public opinion will prevail. But, he says, there are many signs that Trump is “clearly” going to try to steal the election.
There are many elements to this scheme that have already been set in place. As Beutler notes, “Trump’s first major official act in term two was to pardon all January 6 rioters, whether they were under indictment, on trial, convicted, or roaming free.” On Monday, it was announced that the rioters would be rewarded with access to a $1.8 billion slush fund. Trump has ordered that Republicans rig their House maps mid-Census, and when Democrats attempted to respond in kind, Republican Supreme Court justices and lower court judges blocked them. Trump has threatened and taken legal retribution against politicians who have taken action against J6ers. And finally, Trump issued an executive order that gives his officials immense control over mail-in voting.
In the face of this, Beutler says that those to the left of the aisle misunderstand the danger, explaining, “Most liberals believe the nightmare scenario involves federal jackboots surrounding swing-district polling places and scaring off enough nonwhite citizens to flip results. And there is surely some risk there. If control of the House comes down to, say, 10 races, and Trump thinks he can tamper with two or three by sending ICE agents in droves to Long Island and Pennsylvania, why wouldn’t he give it a shot?” But he says the real danger is more methodical.
“If you are an insurrectionist, or insurrection curious, you know Trump will pardon you of your federal crimes,” notes Beutler. “You also know he will abuse his power to help you if you get in trouble at the state level. If that’s not enough to make you overcome your misgivings, he can offer you money from his slush fund. That right there is enough incentive for a bunch of miniature January 6-style riots at swing-district polling places or counting centers. But it gets worse.” Beutler explains that insurrection-friendly lawyers, state officials, and judges will be more likely to promote the president’s steal knowing they will have his political backing and potentially his top-dollar payoffs.
“Is all of this, taken together, incentive enough to establish a dictatorship in America?” Beutler wonders. “It might be! Particularly if Trump springs the plan on an unsuspecting public at the last minute.”
This is especially concerning, says Beutler, considering the lack of concrete action by Democrats, who seem focused on boosting their voter turnout above all else.
“Obviously I am all for turnout,” he explains. “I’m for every show of popular opposition, and I know narrow elections are easier to overturn than landslides. This is nevertheless unresponsive to the Republican scheme. Democrats should be less worried that Republicans will overperform at the ballot box in November than that those same Republican judges will rule for Trump and the GOP in whatever frivolous case they bring after the ballots have been counted.”