GOP could face another brutal loss in special election on Trump’s 'home turf'

President Donald Trump speaks at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Democrats are once again making a major push to flip a state-level office in a special election, this time in Donald Trump's own backyard.

Per a Friday report from Politico, a special election will be held on March 24 in the Florida state house district that contains the part of Palm Beach where Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort is located, after its previous GOP representative was elevated to Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller by Gov. Ron DeSantis. The previous officeholder won reelection in the district by 19 points, while Trump carried it by 9 points in 2024. Despite those recent numbers, Politico noted that Palm Beach leans Democratic overall, setting the stage for a major upset.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said that the party is backing nominee Emily Gregory "with everything we’ve got," making the race a top priority to "flip the president’s home district" and send a major symbolic message ahead of the midterms. Aside from the message to Trump, such a win, Politico explained, would also help embolden the state's "beleaguered" branch of the Democratic Party and set them up to break the GOP's supermajority in the Florida legislature in November. It would also help grow the nationwide party's midterm momentum as another in a growing trend of electoral wins amid Trump's cratering popularity.

Trump has endorsed the Republican in the race, former Lake Clarke Shores council member and financial planner Jon Maples. Despite that, neither he nor his opponent has made the president a central figure of their campaign, opting instead for an affordability message that has resonated with voters in numerous races over the past year.

“Since the Republicans gained a supermajority four years ago, we have not seen any of the affordability crisis issues, any of the housing — anything that would bring real relief to Florida families,” Gregory told Politico. “And it feels like every session is more targeted on harming Florida families and vulnerable populations.”

“In those big moments, athletes have to rise to that occasion,” Maples said of his candidacy. “And when you get the endorsement of the president, it’s a call to rise to the occasion.”

Despite Florida's noted shift to the right in the last few decades, there have been some big signs that Democrats might be able to notch significant gains in the state. In December, Eileen Higgins staged a massive electoral upset, becoming Miami's first Democratic mayor since 1997, besting the Trump-backed Republican candidate by 18 points.

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