MAGA coalition fractures ahead of Trump’s SOTU

On Tuesday, March 4, 2025, President Donald Trump gave the first State of the Union (SOTU) address of his second presidency. Trump and his allies were feeling energized, as he had won both the popular vote and the electoral vote in 2024 and returned to the White House with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress.

But much has changed since then. And Trump is making his 2026 SOTU address — set for Tuesday night, February 24 — following a lot of bad news for Republicans, including weak approval ratings in countless polls, a series of double-digit Democratic victories in recent elections, and the U.S. Supreme Court declaring most of his tariffs illegal with its bombshell 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump.

Another challenge Trump is facing ahead of his 2026 SOTU, according to New York Times reporters Campbell Robertson and Ruth Igielnik, is growing divisions within his MAGA coalition — including a decrease in support in Northeastern Pennsylvania.

In 2024, Trump's narrow victory in Pennsylvania — a key swing state — was a major source of frustration for Democrats. But Robertson and Igielnik report that support for Trump is softening in the northeastern part of the state.

"For a decade now," Robertson and Igielnik explain in an article, "the coal region of Northeastern Pennsylvania has been Trump country, a stretch of post-industrial cities inhabited by disillusioned former Democrats who embody what the president calls 'my base.' On Tuesday night, when Mr. Trump delivers the first true State of the Union address of his second term, this base is by and large still standing behind their president. But beneath the apparent satisfaction among the president's most committed voters lie signs of trouble — for his policy agenda and his political party…. In Luzerne County, in the heart of the coal region, cracks are showing in the broad coalition that gave Mr. Trump a popular vote victory in 2024."

The Times reporters continue, "Some young voters, Latinos and other recent additions to the Trump coalition are beginning to sour on him. And contentment with Mr. Trump doesn't translate into active support for the Republican Party. Some Republicans fear that his base voters, convinced that Mr. Trump needs no one's help to carry out his America First agenda, are exhibiting a dangerous complacency at a time when the president's opponents — Democrats, independents and a growing number of disgruntled Republicans — are fired up."

Robertson and Igielnik note that in November 2025 elections, Democrats "roared back" in Luzerne County by "flipping control of the county council and racking up surprise victories in several municipal and school board races."

Miguel Perdomo, who owns a Dominican restaurant in Wilkes-Barre in Northeastern Pennsylvania, voted for Trump in 2024 but is feeling disappointed now.

Perdomo told the Times, "He promised a lot of stuff, and he isn't doing even half of what he promised. That's why people come back and say, 'I made a mistake.'"