Trump's revenge tour just backfired

The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, passed in 2015, is a federal law that requires the President to submit any nuclear agreement with Iran to Congress, prevents the President from lifting statutory sanctions during a review period, and establishes ongoing congressional oversight. Several Republicans and Democrats have called on Trump to follow the law on the Iran MOU, but Trump plans to skip it after alienating voices he’d need to defend it.

Trump’s personal thirst for revenge at home is hurting him on Iran. Congressmen he attacked in pursuit of personal retribution, and who lost their primaries as a result, have no Effs left to give and can now criticize him openly.

Republican Senators Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, and John Cornyn of Texas represent precisely this threat, and they came out swinging at the MOU. Senator Cassidy called the deal "the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.” Cassidy noted that, “Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future." Senator Thom Tillis noted the cost of the war, to date: $100 billion. Rep. Thomas Massie criticized the figure as five times what Congress spends on roads and bridges annually. Even Mike Pence said the MOU, "smacks of appeasement," while Sen. Ted Cruz called the reconstruction fund giving "billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us."

Making JD Vance cling to the bottom of the bus

Fifteen weeks ago, Trump declared in all caps that, “there will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.” He sought the fall of the regime, total destruction of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, and American control of Iran’s oil. But under the terms of the MOU, Trump is basically paying Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, financially propping up the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Before talks in Switzerland were cancelled due to continued bombing in Lebanon, Trump tried distancing himself from the MOU by having JD Vance become its face. When a reporter suggested Trump was setting JD Vance up for a fall by sending him to Switzerland, Trump tried to turn the reporter’s comment into a joke, but he didn't deny it.

After Vance made his opposition to the war known, Trump forcing him to publicly “conclude” a war he opposed— on embarrassing terms— looks like a political hit job. Flexing a psychopath’s instinct to blame victims, Trump laughed as if war were a joke and announced that, "If (the MOU) works out, I'm going to take the credit. If it doesn't work out, I'm blaming JD.”

The devil in the details

The White House spent four days attacking leaked drafts of the MOU as pure Iranian propaganda and misinformation. On Wednesday when Axios published the entire text of the MOU, it contained the exact language as leaked. The administration framed the MOU as a “major win” for the US, while nearly everyone outside of Fox News calls it a disastrous foreign policy blunder, one that compromises long-term security in exchange for short-term concessions.

Trump was so eager to get oil flowing through the Strait and stop the slide into another Great Depression, he agreed to:

• Premature Sanctions Relief: The MoU immediately waives U.S. sanctions and allows Iran to resume oil exports and unblock restricted assets on "day one." Critics, like former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, warn that this trades away vital economic leverage before hardline nuclear and regional negotiations even begin.
• Rebuilding the Iranian Threat: Analysts warn that the estimated $300 billion reconstruction and financial package will be funneled directly to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to finance terrorism and accelerate nuclear ambitions.
• Compromised Lebanon Strategy: The agreement's ceasefire provisions require de-escalation in Lebanon without involving Israel or Hezbollah in the negotiations. Israel has already rejected this as giving Iran veto power over Israeli self-defense.
• Bribing Over Shipping Lanes: The deal immediately lifts the U.S. blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran only temporarily allowing toll-free passage for the 60-day negotiation period. Critics point out that the U.S. is effectively paying Iran to stop threatening international shipping, while Iran has already signaled its long term intent to charge “fees” for passage.

So, no unconditional surrender. No nuclear disarmament. No permanent agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz without tolls; Vance said on CNBC that those details remain to be "figured out." But Iran will get a $300 billion reconstruction fund and all sanctions lifted, even without those concessions, which is hard to spin as anything other than US surrender.

Poor J.D.

This is the PR trap Trump pushed Vance into: chief defender of an agreement Trump can’t explain. Trump even admitted that the MOU might “not be the kind of document that I should be signing.” The dynamic is vintage Trump: deliver ambiguity instead of details, spectacle over substance, and proclaim victory while reserving blame for everyone else.

Vance, now clinging to the chassis of the bus, made his own bed. After calling Trump America’s Hitler, he joined forces with him anyway. Vance, along with Trump’s Heinrich Himmler, Stephen Miller, pushed to suspend habeas corpus, the legal foundation of democracy itself, and urged Trump to deploy the US military against US citizens in an effort to shut down mass protests in Minnesota.

Vance struck a deal with the devil in pursuit of raw power and now he’s eating it. He can't criticize Trump, or the MOU, and he can’t remind the country of his own opposition to the war. He can only smile through the embarrassment, putting his own face on the catastrophic loss, while Trump moves on to the next shiny object.

Sabrina Haake is a political analyst and 25+ year federal trial attorney specializing in 1st and 14th A defense. She writes the free Substack, The Haake Take.