oting in the midterm elections has already begun in several states.
Many people ask for my midterm predictions — and whether I believe they’ll spell the end of Trump. I’ll share them with you soon, but today I’d like yours.
Herewith, the four scenarios I’m hearing most often. Please select the outcome that seems most likely to you.
1. Even if Dems take control, Trump will just ignore them.
To be honest, I’m not hopeful. Even if Democrats gain control of the House, I don’t see how they constrain Trump. Whatever they do, he’ll just ignore them and accuse them of being partisan. They have no power to stop him. Hold him in contempt of Congress? Fine him? Trump’s Justice Department won’t enforce. Even if Dems also take control of the Senate and they enact legislation that restricts him in some way, he’ll defy it, and if it reaches the Supreme Court, the court will defer to him.
2. Democrats will at least take the House and reveal the corruption, cruelty, and incompetence of Trump.
I believe Dems will take over the House. This will be enough to allow them to hold hearings, take evidence, and reveal to the public the extent of Trump’s corruption, cruelty, and incompetence. A Democratic House could also introduce a bill of impeachment and hold impeachment hearings, which will rally the nation around the importance of dumping Trump and his horrendous regime in 2028. They’ll also introduce legislation that can be the basis of the Dems’ 2028 platform.
3. Dems will take House and Senate and be able to summon enough Senate Republican votes to impeach and convict Trump.
I believe the blue wave will be a blue tsunami, and Dems will take control of the Senate as well as the House, with enough votes to be within a stone’s throw of the two-thirds of the Senate needed to convict Trump of having committed impeachable offenses. Trump is already losing his mind and his power, and I expect enough Republican senators will join Senate Democrats to get rid of him for good. I also expect Dems will chuck Schumer and put in his place a progressive Senate leader.
4. Dems will take the House and Senate, and Trump will resign.
I’m going to go out on a limb here, but everything I see is trending in this direction. Dems will take control of Congress, and Trump — who is becoming more demented by the day — will decide that his best legacy will be to resign and install JD Vance as president. Vance will spend the rest of Trump’s term trying to regain the enthusiasm of Trump’s MAGA base while turning off most of the rest of the nation with his bigoted nonsense, and Dems in Congress will have a chance to assert real leadership.
So today’s Office Hours question: What’s the most likely outcome of the midterm elections?
Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.
