'Perfect storm': GOP biting nails as deep-red Iowa moves to 'tossup'

A person attends the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) USA 2026 at the Gaylord Texan Resort and Convention Center, in Grapevine, Texas, U.S., March 27, 2026. REUTERS Daniel Cole

The Wall Street Journal reports ruby-red Iowa is looking a lot less ruby as fertilizer prices and gas bills catch up with the state’s agrarian constituency.

“Iowa, a state that always plays an outsize role in U.S. politics because of its traditional early spot in presidential nominations, wasn’t supposed to be a political battleground this year,” reports WSJ writer John McCormick. “It backed President Trump by 13 percentage points in the 2024 election, and all six members of Iowa’s congressional delegation are Republicans. … Despite that history, nonpartisan analysts rate the state’s race for governor and two of its four U.S. House contests as tossups that either party could win in November.”

This is a big change from 2023 when The Democratic National Committee was so disillusioned with prospects in the state that it ended a nearly five-decade tradition of Iowa hosting the party’s first presidential nominating contest.

But that was before President Donald Trump’s policies bit chunks out of the state’s farming economy and threatens numerous rural hospitals.

“It’s this perfect storm of pain,” said Sue Dvorsky, a former Iowa Democratic Party chairwoman told WSJ.

Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand is unchallenged in his bid to win his party’s nomination governor while the GOP is dealing with a “messy and potentially divisive primary for governor after Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds decided not to seek a third term.”

“[Republican] Congressman Feenstra is down 12 points to Rob Sand,” Adam Steen, former director of the Iowa Department of Administrative Services, said this week during a Republican gubernatorial primary debate that Feenstra skipped. “From an electability standpoint, that’s why I jumped in this race.”

Former state GOP chairman Rich Schwarm told WSJ that Republicans might actually fall to Democrats’ enthusiasm if Republicans aren’t motivated enough to leave the house on Election Day.

“The Democrats are clearly motivated,” said Schwarm. “The big unknown is how motivated Republicans will be in the fall. If they are, we might be OK. But otherwise it might not be a very good year.”

McCormick said Independent voters will be critical in November. As of April 1, Iowa had 701,962 registered Republicans, compared with 503,365 Democrats and 595,859 Independents.

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