Why Trump wins even if Republicans lose: GOP advisor

Donald Trump with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) and Melania Trump on January 8, 2025 (Office of Senator John Thune/Wikimedia Commons)

President Donald Trump said point-blank last week that he does not care about the midterms. His slate of endorsements, his campaign to purge Republicans he deems disloyal regardless of the fallout, and his stalled, near-invisible legislative agenda suggest he may not be bluffing.

For Trump, “there might be political upside regardless of who wins,” argues Bloomberg columnist Abby McCloskey.

After all, McCloskey notes, Trump endorsed Texas Republican Ken Paxton over John Cornyn for Cornyn’s Senate seat only at the last minute — when polling suggested Paxton had pulled ahead. Trump may simply have been going with the stronger candidate, despite possibly handing Democrats a red Senate seat in the November general election.

“I’m also not seeing any attempt to woo back voters worried about rising costs,” McCloskey writes. “There’s no legislative action on the horizon to address economic woes or bolster consumer confidence. Instead, Trump went on the record saying he doesn’t ‘think about Americans’ financial situation.’ What a gift for Democratic campaign ads.”

Trump, McCloskey argues, may have declared his midterms indifference after reading the tea leaves: prediction markets show Democrats have an 80 percent chance to flip the House to blue, and even a “coin toss” chance to flip the Senate. The president may simply be sensing what’s to come.

But there’s another reason why Trump may not care about Republicans winning the midterms.

Trump “losing control of Congress wouldn’t have much impact on his governing agenda.”

Aside from his One Big Beautiful Bill Act last summer, “there’s essentially been no major legislative agenda to speak of that would require the support of Congress,” says McCloskey. “Trump has relied on executive action more than any modern president.”

Democrats taking back the House and the Senate gives Trump another advantage.

“Trump might actually benefit if the Senate and the House flip to Democratic control,” McCloskey writes. “A majority-Democratic Congress could become the scapegoat that Trump’s second term has been missing. Trump will blame any and all shortcomings on Congress’ new Democratic majority.”

That “could work in Trump’s favor by turning him back into either a victim of the elite or a protector against the progressive tide,” McCloskey says. “The president is at his political apex when he reminds the nation of what awaits on the other side: the woke agenda, the socialist agenda or worse.”

At some point, McCloskey concludes, “when the president says he doesn’t care about his party holding onto power, one has to wonder why.”

From Your Site Articles