U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson leaving the House floor on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 18, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
The GOP's House majority "is down to almost nothing" as surprise retirements, resignations and even deaths continue to mount, according to a new breakdown by the New York Times, with the latest defection announced on Tuesday afternoon.
Republicans began the current House session with a razor-thin majority, and as the year passed since then, the mounting unpopularity of Donald Trump's agenda and the overwhelming chaos of Congress have chipped away at that lead, slowly but surely. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's resignation earlier this month was credited with inspiring several GOP lawmakers to jump ship early or decide not to seek reelection in 2026. The sudden death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a California Republican, also rocked the caucus.
According to the NYT's breakdown of the House, the GOP's majority now sits at 218-to-213, a lead that will only shrink in the coming months. A special election in Texas later this month to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner is expected to go for the Democrats. With a 218-214, "[House Speaker Mike] Johnson would be able to afford only one defection on a party-line vote and still pass legislation," the Times explained. In April, a special election to fill governor-elect Mikie Sherill's seat is also expected to go for the Democrats again, leaving Johnson with the same narrow margin for party defectors.
"Most major legislation cannot even come to the floor without a House vote to set the ground rules for debate," the Times explained. "Without a working majority, Republicans effectively have no control over the floor and no ability to move their agenda. And under House rules, a tie vote fails."
Not long after this NYT breakdown was published, another House Republican, Rep. Neal Dunn of Florida, announced his intention to retire after the end of this session. While he will remain in the House for the rest of the year, leaving the current majority unchanged, his decision will cost the party his incumbent advantage, making the possibility of his seat flipping to a Democrat in the midterms a little bit more likely.
"The time has come to pass the torch to new conservative leaders, return home to Panama City, and spend more precious time with my family and our beloved grandchildren," Dunn wrote in a statement announcing his retirement.
The House GOP's ability to pass legislation has already been greatly imperiled by this shrinking majority, with 2025 seeing the fewest votes of any session's first year in all of the 21st Century. The realities of the midterm elections, which will see many lawmakers on the campaign trail and absent from Washington, will only make things more difficult for Johnson in the coming year.
New: Florida Republican Neal Dunn announces he’ll retire from Congress.
Dunn is a senior member of the E&C committee. Yet another House member saying this term is their last. pic.twitter.com/jXmUUqWBCs
— Samantha Handler (@sn_handler) January 13, 2026