U.S. President Donald Trump during an arrival ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 18, 2025 (REUTERS)
Despite his claim that he does not care about the midterms, President Donald Trump has been focused on securing GOP majority control of both chambers of Congress in November.
His revenge campaign nearly over, Trump has managed to use the primaries to unseat House and Senate Republicans he deemed disloyal — largely despite their voting records. His plan to gain seats in the House appears likely to be successful, picking up roughly ten seats through his redistricting scheme.
“But primaries are not general elections, and winning in November is what really counts,” writes Keith Naughton at The Hill. “Trump could be setting himself up for trouble, and it could well come from a senator not even on the ballot.”
There could be trouble ahead for Senate Republicans who currently hold a 53-47 majority. The majority of “at-risk” seats belong to Republicans, several of which Democrats are poised to flip, including North Carolina and Maine.
That leaves Ohio, Texas, and Michigan, which are toss-ups, according to RealClearPolitics.
It’s Texas where “Trump may have just won the battle but lost the war,” explains Naughton. Many believe Trump’s 11th-hour decision to endorse MAGA Attorney General Ken Paxton over conservative Senator John Cornyn may have been a shot in the foot.
Democratic State Rep. James Talarico reported he took in more than $3 million in the first 24 hours after Paxton won the GOP primary runoff this week.
Naughton examines other races as well, but concludes there is one GOP senator who could upend the president’s plans.
U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) could decide to become an independent but vote with the Democrats — flipping control of the Senate to the Democrats.
Naughton says he thinks Murkowski leaving the GOP and conferencing with the Democrats is a “pretty strong bet.”
“Murkowski has already mused making a switch,” he writes. “Although she tried to dress up remaining a Republican in terms of public policy, the likely reality is that it makes no sense to move from the majority party to the minority — what is the profit in that? Turning the minority party into the majority party, however — that could be very profitable for Murkowski, and for Alaska in general.”
In 2022, Trump endorsed a Murkowski challenger, but she kept her seat. And in 2010, she was forced to run a write-in campaign, and still kept her seat.
“For Murkowski,” Naughton notes, “who voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges and has little loyalty to the Republican Party, switching gets easier as her longtime colleagues leave the Senate chamber — some due to Trump’s machinations.”
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