Why the shooting will not change Trump the way it changed Reagan

22 July 2024

When former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt on Saturday, July 13 during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, many prominent Democrats — from President Joe Biden to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) — vehemently condemned the attack.

Forty-three years early, in March 1981, Democrats on Capitol Hill were horrified by John Hinckley's attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan — including a then-young Sen. Biden (D-Delaware).

Yet the United States' political environment of 2024 is much different from that of 1981. In a think piece published by Politico on July 21, scholar/author Jonathon L. Earle lays out some reasons why Trump, following the July 13 assassination attempt, could be much different from Reagan in 1981.

"The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump was as harrowing as it was inexcusable," Earle explains, "but it was not an aberration in American politics. The last time an American president was injured in an assassination attempt was 43 years ago, when 25-year-old John Hinckley Jr. shot President Ronald Reagan in Washington. How Trump's brush with death will affect his campaign remains to be seen. But in Reagan's case, the shooting changed him as a political figure and even influenced his policy thinking."

Earle continues, "The most obvious effect of the shooting on Reagan's presidency was a popularity boost. When he became president, his national approval was around 51 percent across the country. But following the assassination attempt, Reagan's popularity, already on an uptick, soared — fueled in part by his sympathetic handling of the incident."

In 1981, conservative Reagan famously enjoyed a cordial relationship with liberal House Speaker Tip O'Neill (D-Massachusetts), which isn't to say that they didn't have more than their share of policy disagreements. Many historians have emphasized that Reagan and O'Neill two viewed one another as the loyal opposition — not bitter enemies.

Earle doubts that the July 13 assassination attempt will have the same type of impact that the 1981 attack did.

"It is impossible to predict exactly how the assassination attempt on Trump's life will alter our politics in the coming months — though if the proliferation of conspiracy theories on social media is any indication, it won’t be for the better," Earle writes. "And the post-shooting Trump likely won't resemble the post-shooting Reagan; the modern GOP shows no sign of moving on gun reform, and public polling does not show the kind of mass approval for Trump among the American electorate that Reagan enjoyed."

Earle adds, "Whether Trump can secure reelection remains to be seen. What is certain is that the shooting has contributed to rising fears of a return to an era of political violence not seen in decades."

Read Jonathon L. Earle's full article for Politico at this link.

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