Washington Monthly editor Bill Scher said President Donald Trump is still futilely chasing a Nobel Peace Prize, and this may be the only thing keeping Ukraine alive.
“Fundamentally, the three leaders [of Russia, Ukraine and the U.S.] want different things,” said Scher. “[Russian leader Vladimir] Putin wants an exclusive sphere of influence beyond Russia’s borders. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky wants no Russian influence within Ukraine’s borders. Trump wants a medal and a better lead on his obituary than ‘first president to be convicted of fraud and impeached twice.’ These interests do not align.”
Scher pointed out that Trump is still the president who has downplayed the deaths of countless Ukrainians fighting off Russian invaders. And he’s still the president who just recently threatened to yank U.S. support, giving Zelensky a Thanksgiving deadline to accept a 28-point “peace” plan heavily favoring Russian interests.
“Then, things got weird,” said Scher, explaining that Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio suddenly appeared to have “excised” parts of the peace plan that forever barred Ukraine from joining NATO and banned NATO member states from forming a security force inside Ukraine to expel a new Russian invasion. These changes went against the preferences of other anti-Ukraine elements filling the Trump administration, including Vice President JD Vance.
“Rubio wouldn’t have the leeway to conduct negotiations with Ukraine without Trump’s permission,” said Scher. “Other Trump officials have been sent packing for less subordinate behavior. Why is Rubio still around?”
“Trump must know he would never win a Nobel for washing his hands of Ukraine, ending military support, and letting Moscow steamroll Kyiv. Any fantasies of a medal ceremony in Oslo hinge on an actual peace agreement,” Scher continued. “The president’s insatiable thirst for shiny awards and recognition from elites he otherwise disdains gives him reason to grant Rubio latitude to negotiate. Most crucially, it offers Ukraine leverage to resist a bad deal. But it gives Putin nothing.”
If a deal just came down to drawing new borders, Scher said a painful but acceptable middle ground could likely be found. But Zelensky wants security guarantees backed up by NATO, and Putin wants NATO out of his backyard, so there’s no middle ground.
In this kind of intense push-and-pull, Scher said it may be Trump’s base desire for recognition and accolades that shape the outcome.
“In other words, Trump’s narcissistic and futile compulsion for a Nobel Peace Prize may be what allows Ukraine to fight on.”
Read Scher's Washington Monthly column at this link.