White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles attends a dinner hosted by U.S. President Trump in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 2, 2026.
Democrats have a good shot at taking control of the House and perhaps even the Senate, Trump’s approval ratings are among the lowest of any president on record, and the 80-year-old president is looking and acting ever more demented.
So how long will he last, and what’s likely to do him in?
I’ve posed that question to an array of president watchers, advisers, and historians, and I’ve grouped their responses below. (None talked about him dying in office, although that possibility can’t be entirely discounted.)
Please select the one that best matches your own sense of how Trump will go.
1. He’ll hang on for two more years.
A few people I consulted with believe his determination to fill out his term — and not appear weak or resemble Joe Biden — will force him to stay the course if he can possibly hold on. They predict he’ll continue to lose his mental and physical capacities, say and post ever more outrageous things, and become an object more ridiculed than feared, but he won’t budge. The world will be spared by a few relatively saner people around him who won’t allow him to destroy humanity.
2. He’ll resign within a year and give the office over to Vance.
A second view I’m hearing is that because Trump cares so strongly about his legacy, he won’t want to be remembered as frail and bonkers. So before he’s totally incapacitated he’ll turn the presidency over to JD Vance — to give Vance a leg up on the 2028 election. Trump’s deal with Vance and top officials in Congress will be that, in return for his resignation, they’ll agree to his memorial arch, his name on the Kennedy Center, and his name on the White House ballroom.
3. He’ll be impeached and convicted within the year.
Some are convinced that if the Democrats gain control of the House, they’ll impeach Trump for high crimes and misdemeanors (the list of wrongdoings is already long) and that enough Republican senators will join Democrats to come up with the two-thirds necessary to convict him. They note that Trump’s support among Republican senators is already weakening, and many would rather not have him president during the 2028 general election.
4. The 25th Amendment will be invoked within six months.
Others think the likeliest outcome is for the 25th Amendment to be invoked because, at the rate he’s deteriorating, Trump’s mental and physical losses will soon become obvious. Democratic leaders will become alarmed at his behavior, Vance will be eager to take the reins, and congressional Republicans won’t want him president during the 2028 election. Hence, under Section 4 of the amendment, Congress will set up a body to declare him unable to “discharge the powers and duties of his office.”
So today’s Office Hours question: How long will Trump last, and how will he leave office?
Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.