U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media before departing for a state visit to Britain, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 16, 2025. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno
After President Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, his detractors — a mixture of Democrats, centrists, liberals, progressives, and right-wing Never Trump conservatives — hoped that he was finished in U.S. politics. But Trump showed his resilience in 2024: Despite four criminal indictments, two impeachments, a conviction on 34 felony counts, and major losses in costly civil lawsuits, Trump narrowly defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and returned to the White House on January 20, 2025.
Trump, now almost eight months into his second presidency, is faring poorly in many polls. But journalist David M. Drucker, in an opinion column published by Bloomberg News on September 16, argues that Trump's poll numbers have more nuance than meets the eye.
"President Donald Trump is not as popular as he claims," Drucker writes. "But neither is he as unpopular as his opponents might like to think. That's the simple explanation. Dig under the hood, however, and things get complicated. I'm constantly asked to assess Trump's political standing; it's among the more consistent questions posed to professional political analysts. And — in case you hadn't noticed — there is a ton of polling out there. But these surveys, many of them credible and worth considering, often spit out different data, allowing interested readers to draw different, sometimes contradictory, conclusions."
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Drucker stresses that while Trump's poll numbers aren't great, he isn't "flatlining" either.
"Even respected polling averages — which you should absolutely heed more than individual polls — aren't saying quite the same thing," Drucker explains. "The Silver Bulletin’s most recent average clocks the president’s job approval rating at 44.2 percent; the RealClearPolitics average is 45.9 percent and the Cook Political Report's average is 42.9 percent. Yes, the numbers are similar. But mentally, 46 percent and 43 percent can feel much different — after all, elections have been decided by slimmer margins."
Drucker continues, "Either way, Trump's 'topline' job approval rating — the overall share of voters who approve of how he's doing — is short of 50 percent — a vital sign that suggests poor political health for the president personally. And yet, to extend the analogy further, Trump is not flatlining."
CNN polling expert Harry Enten stresses that Trump's hardcore MAGA base is as devoted as ever.
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Enten told Drucker, "His base is solid as a rock…. There is zero doubt that Trump is in a better position now than he was at this point in his first presidency…. Maybe the right baseline is comparing him to other second-term presidents. In that way, he’s in a better position than George W. Bush and, arguably, Barack Obama."
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Read David M. Drucker's full column for Bloomberg News at this link (subscription required).