Republican voters are losing their fight — and their enemy is surging

A person attends the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) USA 2026 at the Gaylord Texan Resort and Convention Center, in Grapevine, Texas, U.S., March 27, 2026. REUTERS Daniel Cole

The Washington Post reports undemocratic Republican gerrymandering efforts have indeed put a whack on Democrats’ fight this year. According to analysts, Democrats now need to win by three to four percentage points overall to gain a majority in the House due to partisan redistricting favoring Republicans.

But that doesn’t appear to matter this year. This year, Republicans are cooked — and it all comes down to passion.

“Americans prefer Democrats to Republicans in the congressional midterm elections by only a slim margin, but Democratic supporters are far more motivated to vote,” reports the Post, citing a Washington Post-Ipsos poll. “The blue advantage grows to eight points among those ‘absolutely certain to vote,’ with 53 percent of highly motivated voters supporting Democrats and 45 percent supporting Republicans.”

Republicans are not losing by a wide margin among the broader electorate despite President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity and broad concerns about the economy, the war with Iran and immigration issues, according to the Post’s surveys. But their supporters just aren’t as energized to turn up at the polls, the Post-Ipsos poll suggests.

The Post claims if Trump is able to mitigate some top concerns by Election Day, by bringing down the price of gasoline he caused by starting his unilateral war with Iran, his mid-decade gerrymandering scheme might actually pay off and he could potentially retain a House majority.

But Democrats are riding high a more enthusiastic base, which is evident in the poll and in the party’s strong turnout in recent primaries and special elections. The enthusiasm gap between the two parties is greater now than in 2018, when Democrats gained 40 House seats in a blue wave.

“Democrats are 10 points more likely to be certain to vote this year than Republicans, larger than their two-point edge in 2018. And more than 7 in 10 Democrats say it is “more important” to vote in 2026 than in previous midterm elections, compared with just over half of Republicans,” reports the Post.

Meanwhile, Americans are struggling. And they’re more worried about their finances than they were eight years ago, the Post added. This year, 40 percent of registered voters say they’re “not as well off” as when Trump took office, compared with 13 percent who said the same in November 2018.

Additionally, the Post survey revealed voters give Trump “clearly negative” marks for their three top midterm issues, with more than 6 in 10 disapproving of his handling of the economy and Iran and 56 percent disapproving of his handling of immigration.

“Republicans who love Trump and Democrats who loathe him are the most likely to vote, but the latter group is much bigger,” reports the Post.

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