Trump’s support shrinks as conviction becomes 'electoral liability'

17 June 2024

Presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump's legal problems aren't hurting his popularity with his hardcore MAGA base. But independent voters and swing voters are another matter.

According to a new poll conducted by Politico Magazine and Ipsos, the fact that Trump was found guilty on 34 criminal counts in his hush money/falsified business records trial is a major concern for many independents.

"In the weeks since the verdict," Politico's Ankush Khardori explains in an article published on June 17, "both parties have sought to shape the public's initial reaction, with Republicans largely denouncing it and Democrats citing the result as further evidence that Trump is unfit for office. To figure out how this unprecedented moment is being processed by the electorate, Politico Magazine partnered with Ipsos in a new survey."

Khardori adds, "Among the most notable findings in our poll: 21 percent of independents said the conviction made them less likely to support Trump and that it would be an important factor in their vote. In a close election, small shifts among independent and swing voters could determine the outcome."

Khardori notes, however, that a "sizable number of Americans, including independents, question whether the verdict was the result of a fair and impartial process."

"Taken as a whole," Khardori explains, "the results of the poll suggest that Americans' views on the Trump verdict may still be malleable — and could get better or worse for Trump."

The poll's "key findings," according to Khardori, include: (1) "Trump's conviction is an electoral liability — particularly among independents," (2) "Trump’s conviction could drive voters away from him," (3) "Many Americans remain skeptical of the verdict," (4) "Many Americans question the origins of the prosecution," (5) "Many Americans believe that the prosecution was brought to help Joe Biden," and (6) "Trust in the justice system has eroded among Republicans."

Trump is scheduled to be sentenced by Justice Juan Merchan on Thursday, July 11. But the three other criminal indictments he is facing appear unlikely to go to trial before the November election.

Read Politico's full report at this link.

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