'Warning sign for Trump' as key voting group 'lags' in crucial swing state

01 November 2024

Early voting is underway in Pennsylvania, one of the battleground states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.

Decision desks, on Election Night, will not only be watching Pennsylvania closely to see how well Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are performing — they will also be keeping a close eye on the state's U.S. Senate race, which finds incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. seeking a fourth term and being challenged by Republican Dave McCormick.

Politico, in late October, reported that women registered as Democrats were voting early in big numbers in Pennsylvania — an encouraging sign for Harris.

Now, according to separate reporting in Politico, Harris has another reason for optimism in the Keystone State: Trump, in early voting, is "lagging" among seniors.

In an article published on October 31, Politico reporters Meridith McGraw and Jessica Piper explain, "It's a warning sign for the former president that reflects early vote data and polling across the battlegrounds, after Republicans won the senior vote in each of the last five presidential elections. In Pennsylvania, where voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans."

The reporters add, "That's despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older."

For Democrats, this turnout among Pennsylvania seniors is "an unexpected reason for optimism," according to McGraw and Piper.

"According to modeling data shared by a Democratic campaign operative tracking early voting, across the Blue Wall states, Democratic voters over the age of 65 are running 10 to 20 percent ahead of their Republican counterparts with respect to registered turnout," the Politico journalists note. "And the same Democratic modeling shows Black voters over the age of 65 — and in particular older Black women, a core Democratic bloc — are returning ballots at a higher rate than any other demographic group."

Read Politico's full report at this link.

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