Leading election forecaster gives Texas GOP the news it feared after Paxton win

Attorney General of Texas Ken Paxton speaks during President Donald Trump's rally, in Conroe, Texas, January 29, 2022. REUTERS (Left). Trump speaks at the White House, Image via CSPAN (Right)

While President Donald Trump and his MAGA supporters might be celebrating Ken Paxton's dominant win in Tuesday's Senate primary, according to one of the leading election forecasters, the result has tipped the general election odds in the direction that the Texas GOP most feared.

Paxton, whose time as Texas attorney general has been plagued by scandal and corruption, trounced incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff this week, spelling the end of one of the most powerful Republicans in the Senate. This came after Trump, at the last minute, issued an endorsement of Paxton, calling him a staunch MAGA ally, despite the warnings of his party. Given his history, Paxton has a lot of toxic political baggage, prompting considerable alarm that voters might turn their noses up at him and open a path to victory for Democrats.

The blue opposition is also fielding one of its strongest Texas Senate nominees in years in the form of state Rep. James Talarico, who has built a strong campaign with a focus on economic issues voters are most worried about, as well as his devout Christianity. Numerous polls have shown that Cornyn might have been able to fend off Talarico, Paxton's chances were much closer, with some even giving the Democrat the edge.

These worries were reflected by the latest update from the Cook Political Report, a firm that issues predictions for every major political race in the country based on evolving circumstances. In the wake of Paxton's win, per The Hill, the report moved its prediction for the Texas Senate race to be more in favor of a Talarico win.

Cook still, overall, gives the Republican Party the edge in the race, but now, it is more slight. Whereas the rating used to be "likely Republican," Paxton's win saw it changed to a "lean Republican" rating, the sort of momentum shift that the Texas GOP does not want to see. It also noted that the Texas AG has no shortage of weaknesses for Democrats to exploit, potentially helping them move the race more in their favor through November.

"Paxton has a litany of ethical lapses for Democrats to exploit — from allegations of bribery and misuse of his office to marital infidelity, which led his wife to divorce him on ‘biblical grounds,’” Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, explained. “Given the national environment, this is a race that certainly may have become competitive even if Cornyn had won, but Paxton’s flaws warrant an immediate move to the Lean column."

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