US President Donald Trump speaks with members of the press before walking to board Marine One at the White House in Washington, DC, US, October 10, 2026. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
On Wednesday, a guest on Fox News had some bad news for President Donald Trump, who is desperately hoping for fuel prices to come down. But according to Kevin Mahn, Chief Investment Officer at the wealth management firm Hennion and Walsh, it’s not going to happen.
“Oil is the largest overarching concern I have for right now,” said Mahn, “because I think a lot of investors assume once we get to the midterm elections and pass them, somehow the Strait of Hormuz is going to magically open and oil prices are going to start to come down. And I don't think it's going to happen that quickly. And if we continue to see a trade above $100, then the Federal Reserve is going to think they have to do something.”
Mahn’s warning comes after oil prices spiked to just shy of $110 per barrel overnight, hitting five-month highs. According to Reuters, the sudden upswing was caused by a flare-up of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, a lack of progress on making a deal with Iran, and declining oil stocks following Trump’s order releasing 820,000 barrels from the national reserve. On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told the Financial Times that Iran was fully prepared to continue defending itself, while President Masoud Pezeshkian told state media the US could not expect dialogue while blockading and threatening Iran. What’s more, at least 18 vessel attacks were recorded over the past two weeks, and analysts warn that Iran is targeting tankers well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, reaching into the Gulf of Oman and further exacerbating the situation by jeopardising Gulf crude loadings and ship-to-ship transfers.
In the face of the rising prices that will accompany rising fuel costs, Mahn worried that the Federal Reserve may consider another possible interest rate hike in an attempt to stem inflation. As long as food prices don’t continue to climb, he hoped, the Fed won’t think there’s a need for a rate increase, which many have noted is contributing to the housing affordability crisis. But Fox anchor Liz Claman didn’t seem so optimistic. “Let’s be clear,” she interrupted. “We've seen beef skyrocket. A lot of people are struggling to buy groceries.”
Trump has been flailing for a solution to the energy crisis caused by his decision to launch war with Iran. One move involved lifting a temporary restriction on red dye diesel that is usually limited to off-road use, but as Politico reports, the administration soon realized this would deliver limited benefits. Top agriculture lobbyists also warned the dyed diesel plan could actually backfire on farmers, because they may still be required to pay taxes on the product further down the road. Trump then announced an $8 billion bailout for farmers struggling with diesel prices, but commentators quickly pointed out that it resulted in little relief on a per-farm basis, and the fund to pay for it doesn’t have enough cash in the first place. He’s also offered major concessions to Russia, dropping the sanctions he himself signed into law so the U.S. can import Russian diesel — a decision that prompted bipartisan outrage. Now Trump is tapping into the national reserves, which some have warned could result in higher fuel prices when demand rises in the winter.