Analysis shows why this 'rock-ribbed Republican' stronghold may spell trouble for Trump

03 April

In the past, Florida had a reputation for being a volatile swing state that could go either Republican or Democrat in statewide elections. GOP ex-President George W. Bush carried Florida in both 2000 and 2004 before Democratic former President Barack Obama won the Sunshine State in 2008 and 2012. Then, in the 2018 midterms, Florida's gubernatorial race was a real nail-biter, with now-Gov. Ron DeSantis narrowly defeating the Democratic nominee, former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.

But in 2022, the far-right DeSantis was reelected by 19 percent. And in 2024's presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by 13 percent compared to his single-digit wins in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Florida, according to political strategists, didn't act like a swing state in 2022 or 2024, but like a state that is now deep red.

According to Politico's Charlie Mahtesian, however, the election results of Tuesday, April 1 indicate that the MAGA movement's domination of Florida politics may not be as strong as it seems.

On special elections for U.S. House seats held on Tuesday, April 1, GOP candidates enjoyed double-digit victories. Republican Jimmy Patronis defeated Democrat Gay Valimont by roughly 14 percent, and Republican Randy Fine defeated Democrat Josh Weil by 14 percent.

Even so, Mahtesian stresses, their margins weren't that strong given how deep-red their congressional districts are.

"There were two special House elections in Florida Tuesday, both in comfortably Republican districts where Democrats typically don’t have a prayer," Mahtesian explains in post-elections analysis. "It was clear going in that Democrats were poised to overperform in each of them — a result of grassroots rage toward Trump and the party's frequent advantage in special and off-year elections. The Democratic nominees in both districts indeed ran better than expected — far better than in 2024 — but in the end, the GOP held both seats. Yet the Republican victory in Florida's Panhandle-based 1st District obscured a troubling harbinger that appears to be connected to (Elon) Musk — a loss in Pensacola's Escambia County."

The results in a "rock-ribbed Republican" U.S. House district, according to Mahtesian, indicate that billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk's "political blast radius could be a problem for the GOP going into the 2026 midterm elections."

Escambia County, according to Mahtesian, is "more Deep South than South Florida."

"It's a place that voted for Barry Goldwater in 1964, George Wallace in 1968, delivered a nearly 20-point victory to Trump in 2024 and also voted for polarizing former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz by big margins — even after the sex scandal allegations," Mahtesian notes. "On Tuesday, however, Escambia County broke with habit and narrowly voted for Democrat Gay Valimont over Republican Jimmy Patronis. In 2024, when Valimont was also the Democratic nominee, she lost there by 14 points. In fact, across the four counties that make up the 1st District, Valimont lost by 32 points in 2024. On Tuesday, that margin was cut in half — she lost by 15."

Charlie Mahtesian's full article for Politico is available at this link.

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