Trump's avalanche of bad numbers is a countdown to 'disaster': report

President Donald Trump is staring down an avalanche of bad numbers, per a new report from The i Paper, and it is setting up his party for a "looming election disaster" in the months to come.

"As America enters the closing stages of this year’s midterm election campaign, Republicans are not just on the back foot ahead of their date with destiny on Tuesday, [November 3], they are flat on their backs in the ring – and the referee has already started the count," veteran DC correspondent Simon Marks wrote on Saturday. "The roots of what appears to be impending disaster for America’s Grand Old Party lie in a series of numbers that provide incontrovertible evidence of the damage caused to the Republican brand by President Donald Trump. His name does not appear on any ballot paper this November, but the White House conceded months ago that the force of his personality makes this year’s electoral cycle a de facto referendum on his return to power."

Writing further, Marks argued that the GOP's slim majorities in both the House and Senate are meaningfully at risk in the looming midterm election due to the mounting hatred voters are expressing for Trump's presidency. He added that "on every single issue voters are questioned about," they show growing disapproval of Trump, as well as the Republican lawmakers who have gotten in lockstep with his agenda, laying out several data points that show the looming disaster headed for the party.

"A look at the details underlying Trump’s approval ratings shows that there is not one issue on which he can claim majority support of Americans," Marks explained. "CNN’s most recent survey, conducted in late July, showed the President’s overall approval rating stood at just 34 per cent. But on key individual issues he is in an even worse position. Just 21 per cent of voters said they approved of his handling of fuel prices, which have soared as a direct consequence of his fruitless war on Iran. That same military campaign is opposed by 72 per cent of voters while his handling of inflation scored the backing of just one voter in every four. Even the two strongest suits in Trump’s arsenal among his own supporters – mass deportations and his continuing questioning of US election integrity – are backed by only 39 per cent and 41 per cent of the public respectively."

Beyond those toxic approval numbers, Marks also argued that the GOP's narrow numbers in Congress are also part of the problem. Since 2024, the party has only maintained slim majorities in each chamber: 53-47 in the Senate, and 219-214 in the House, the latter of which has been whittled down by an unusually high rate of departures.

"Trump’s policies have driven a fresh wedge between Republicans and the growing electoral power of black, Hispanic and other minority voters in America," Marks added. "In the 2024 presidential election, Trump secured the support of 46 per cent of Hispanic voters, a number so unprecedented that some political analysts argued they had effectively secured him his second term in office... But new polling shows Democrats now enjoy a 24-point advantage over Republicans in securing Hispanic votes. According to the research by the non-partisan Pew Research Center almost 50 per cent of Hispanic voters interviewed said they would back Democratic Party candidates in November, with just 26 per cent planning to back Republicans... Black voters are also deserting the Republicans in droves. In 2024, Trump secured an historic 15 per cent of the black vote (almost double the 8 per cent support he secured in 2020). Today, that advantage has also been completely erased, with 8 per cent now saying they will back Republicans in the midterms, according to Pew researchers."

Marks noted that fundraising is one of the few statistics where Republicans have the edge over Democrats, though he argued that money can only do so much in the face of overwhelming voter "antipathy" to Trump and the party. Recent reports have also suggested that Trump is hesitant to do anything with his own war chest of fundraising dollars besides buying ads to tout his record, the last thing many Republican candidates want to put attention on.