Devastating scenario could 'end the GOP’s total grip' on state power

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott at the Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, U.S., September 10, 2026. REUTERS/Jessica Koscielniak

Analysis of the 2026 midterms often focuses on control of Congress along with gubernatorial races. But control of state legislatures will also be determined in the midterms, and according to The New Republic's Perry Bacon, a major blue wave could reduce the number of red states.

"The Democrats are poised to gain control of the House and potentially the Senate this November, which would substantially weaken President Trump and MAGA at the national level," Bacon explains in The New Republic. "But many of the worst Republican ideas are implemented at the state level, and as long as Trump is in the White House blocking progress of any sort at the federal level, the only path to sane, just policies is through the states. So that's why it's great and super-important news that Democrats could also flip a number of state legislatures and governorships this November, ending the GOP's total grip on many states and giving Democrats complete power in several others."

Bacon adds, "If things go right this fall, a majority of Americans will live in Democratic 'trifecta' states, and only a quarter in Republican trifecta states. Such a shift would greatly improve the lives of millions of Americans, as well as strengthen our democracy."

The New Republic journalist notes that Republicans presently "control the state legislature and the governor's office in 23 states, including virtually the entire South and Mountain West."

"States under total Republican control are constantly passing restrictions on abortion and transgender rights, rolling back academic freedom at colleges, making it harder for Black people, college students, and other-left leaning constituencies to vote, and implementing a plutocratic economic agenda of low taxes for the wealthy and corporations and low wages and meager public benefits for everyone else," Bacon observes. "These states are 'Laboratories Against Democracy,' the title of a book by University of California, Berkeley political scientist Jake Grumbach that describes how radical GOP policymakers at the state level have become. But if the blue wave is as strong as polls suggest, many fewer Americans will live under unified GOP rule than do today."

The size of a possible "blue wave," Bacon emphasizes, will determine how much Republicans, in 2027, will be able to get done at the state level.

"Democratic candidate Rob Sands is favored to win the gubernatorial election in Iowa," according to Bacon. "Democratic candidates in Ohio and Georgia have about even odds, and Texas' Gina Hinojosa is an underdog but has a path to victory there. The party could also gain control of the state House in New Hampshire, another state where Republicans currently have a trifecta. If Democrats won in those five states, only about 25 percent of Americans would live in GOP-controlled states — a huge decrease from the current 42 percent."

Bacon continues, "That's because these are some of the biggest states in the country: Texas (second biggest, 31 million people); Ohio (seventh, 12 million); Georgia (eighth, 11 million) … We've been split into Two Americas for a long time and that’s likely to continue. So the best we can hope for is what's likely to happen in November — the pluralistic social democracy America being practiced in the blue states keeps expanding while the anti-democratic, plutocratic red state America shrinks."

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