Fox News calls it: Trump policy hurts key battleground states

U.S. President Donald Trump gestures during an event at The Villages Charter School at The Villages, Florida, U.S., May 1, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard

On Wednesday, Fox News shared some bad news for Republican midterm chances. According to the network, President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with Canada will hurt five states in particular – all of which are key battleground states.

“Billions of dollars in U.S. exports are exposed to the northern neighbor's retaliatory tariffs that target American goods across a range of industries,” reports Fox. “The outcome? Costs are expected to continue rising for U.S. businesses and consumers in the weeks leading to the must-win midterms.” To better understand how the situation would play out, Fox spoke with David Clement, policy director of the free market nonprofit Consumer Choice Center, who explained, "American manufacturers or American businesses who rely on Canadian inputs are going to start to feel the pain right in the lead up to going to the ballot box.” He specified that Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are among the states most exposed to negative fallout, due to their high levels of trade with Canada and the goods targeted by the tariffs.

"Ohio is by far the most vulnerable state in terms of exposure from the Canadian retaliatory tariffs," Clement said, estimating roughly $2.3 billion in exports to Canada are exposed. He noted machinery, transportation products, minerals, and metals as major sources of that vulnerability. In Michigan, Fox went on, the impact is particularly evident in the auto industry, where supply chains are deeply intertwined with neighboring Ontario. "Most Americans don’t know that a single component on a U.S.-assembled vehicle can cross the border upwards of eight times before it’s actually completed," Clement said. "When you are tariffing automotive parts going across the border each way, it really gums up the very intertwined supply chain for cars between Michigan and Ontario." Those costs, he asserted, will trickle down to consumers. Fox notes that Pennsylvania also faces significant exposure. According to Clement, roughly 25 percent of the state's exports go to Canada, much of it machinery and equipment, putting just under $1.8 billion in exports at risk.

Clement also argued that even if Democrats win control of Congress during the midterms, the trade war likely won’t end anytime soon due to the legislative hurdles that impede lawmakers’ ability to reverse presidential trade policy. Still, Clement asserted that the timing could play a big role in the midterms, as the impacts of the tariffs are already being felt. "Cost of living, cost of goods, cost of doing business is such an important factor for Americans who are going to be casting a ballot," he said.

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