Ex-staffer unloads on why Trump won't be the midterms' biggest loser

President Donald Trump smiles during an event in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., September 2, 2025. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo

The midterms are widely predicted to be a disaster for the GOP as voters look to rebuke President Donald Trump, but as one of his former staffers wrote for MS NOW, he will not end up being the biggest loser in the event of a blue wave.

Matthew Bartlett previously served as a first-term appointee in Trump's State Department, but now works as a GOP strategist and media analyst, writing critiques of his former boss for places like MS NOW. On Sunday, he published his latest piece for the outlet, detailing his argument for why Trump will not be the one to suffer the most damage from a midterm wipeout, nor will it be any Republican on a ballot in November.

"Currently, the debate among Republicans is not whether the November elections will go badly, but how badly it will go," Bartlett wrote, adding later, "Yet the Republican with the most on the line come Election Day may not even be on the ballot: Vice President JD Vance."

Bartlett explained that Vance is facing increased resistance as the presumptive 2028 GOP nominee for president from party leaders, including Karl Rove, but the loyal GOP base remains committed to him, as demonstrated by chants of "48" when he spoke at the midterm convention. However, just because he might sail through the 2028 primary does not mean Vance is not running headlong into a big wall.

"But a primary walk for Vance may quickly turn to a general election crawl," Bartlett explained. "Vance’s presidential campaign may answer the question of what the fate of the Republican Party would have been if then-Vice President Dick Cheney had been the nominee in 2008 — equally unpopular as their president but possibly more unlikable."

He added later: "As the 2028 MAGA heir apparent, Vance will have to continue to parrot or attempt to excuse any erratic behavior or irrelevant idea Trump offers. There is a very real possibility he will be running in an even more toxic political environment for Republicans — all while he runs in and from Trump’s shadow. While 2026 is still unclear, it appears many Republicans are all but certain on Vance in 2028. But with Trump still as president, Vance’s fate in that race may already be certain as well."

Bartlett also highlighted reports indicating that another possible 2028 frontrunner, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has seen the writing on the wall and told those close to him that the landscape will be too toxic for Republicans to survive in 2028. Instead of running in the next cycle, Rubio has suggested that he might hold off until 2032 or 2036.

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