Trump's best shot at saving the midterms has officially gone up in flames

President Donald Trump returns to the White House, after Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran, in Washington, D.C., March 1, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard

President Donald Trump is running out of time to reverse the GOP's near-certain doom in the midterms, and according to a new analysis from MS NOW, his "easiest path" to do so just went up in smoke.

On Monday morning, reporter James Downie published a piece for the outlet breaking down the recent August inflation report and detailing why "Trump's best chance at good economic news" to boast about ahead of the midterms "went poof" because of it. Voters have routinely told pollsters that economic matters and the cost of living are their biggest issues as November approaches, with majorities holding Trump responsible for making them worse. With the arrival of the latest inflation report, the president has even less to work with.

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose in August by 0.4 percent and 3.4 percent over the past year," Downie detailed. "The 'core CPI' (the less volatile measure that removes food and energy prices) rose 0.3 percent for the month and 2.4 percent annually. For the fifth month in a row, inflation-adjusted wages fell on a yearly basis. Were this September 2025, the BLS’ report would be disappointing for the White House but hardly catastrophic. Inflation isn’t accelerating, and it remains well below its peak back in 2022. There were even bright spots in some areas: Grocery prices were flat for the second straight month, for instance."

Downie added: "But this is September 2026, and the president and his party are out of time."

With inflation running above the Federal Reserve's targets, Trump's newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled that an interest rate increase is coming, the exact opposite of what the president has explicitly demanded from the Fed. With those rates increased, Downie explained, voters can expect "upward pressure on rates for mortgages, credit cards, car loans and other expenses."

It also, he added, represents "a definitive sign (if another were needed)" that Trump's promise to slash consumer prices "on day one" has completely failed. His recent promise to send $5,000 checks if Republicans win the midterms, meanwhile, "is an admission that he and his party are stuck with the same argument that failed Democrats in 2024: a plea for patience."

"For over a year and a half, the White House and its GOP allies have blamed the Biden administration for economic troubles and assured voters that things are getting better. At times, Trump has even claimed a new golden age is already here," Downie concluded. "This month’s inflation report confirms that the GOP’s version of 'stick with us' is even harder than it was for Joe Biden in 2022 and later Kamala Harris in 2024. Whereas Democrats could at least say the rate of inflation declined significantly over the latter two years of Biden’s term, that rate has plateaued under Trump — and wages are once again trailing inflation. And to an unusual extent, the president’s actions, most visibly the war with Iran, are to blame, as his polling on the economy shows. The quickest path to a surprisingly strong midterm for the GOP was through a sharp economic revival. That path is now closed."

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