On Tuesday, in the wake of news that prediction markets project a Democratic sweep of Congress, a leading venture capitalist took to social media to lambast the leadership of President Donald Trump. According to famed entrepreneur and investor Jason Calacanis, the president is “high” on his own supply and surrounded by “loyal incompetents.”
“Presidential Rule number one: don't start a never-ending war in the Middle East. Americans have PTSD from them,” posted Calacanis. “Presidential Rule number two: it's the economy, always has been. Leadership rule number one: Surround yourself with competent people who tell you uncomfortable truths – not sycophants or loyal incompetents. The sycophants will do you in every time. Never get high on your own supply.”
He made these comments over a Polymarket prediction declaring that “Democrats are now projected to sweep the 2026 midterms, taking both the Senate [and] House.” According to the company, there is a 51 percent chance Democrats flip Congress, while there is only a 36 percent chance that Republicans will retain it. Trump’s second term has been characterized by catastrophes that have dragged down the GOP in the polls, which show not only that the president is historically unpopular, but that Democrats hold historic leads on a generic ballot. According to a recent survey by Politico, a “solid majority” of Americans say that Trump’s war on Iran has made the affordability crisis worse, and Republicans are expected to pay politically in November.
According to Calacanis, it didn’t have to turn out this way. In his estimation, “If President Trump hadn’t started this war, and had been reasonably disciplined with the economy, he would have gone down as Regan — over the course of time. So many lessons… and hey, maybe DJT pulls another rabbit out of his magic hat of rabbits. Maybe the war magically stops, the tariffs settle down and become predictable revenue streams (instead of performance art), we win the AI revolution, abundance follows, and growth wins the day.” But Calacanis doesn’t think the likelihood is high, noting, “He’s got a puncher's chance.”
Calacanis — who used to praise Trump’s economic policies while criticizing his personal behavior — wasn’t alone in commenting on the prediction odds. “Hey [Majority Speaker John Thune], did you see this?” asked the pro-Trump account Libs of TikTok. “Republicans need to get out and give the people a reason to vote for them before it’s too late,” said far-right influencer Benny Johnson. And according to Savannah Hernandez of Turning Point USA, “If this happens, it’ll be impeachment and investigation season all over again.”