The margins are razor-thin — but one party will likely win Congress: experts

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U.S. President Donald Trump delivers an address to the nation about the Iran war at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. April 1, 2026. Alex Brandon/Pool via REUTERS

According to polling experts, either President Donald Trump’s Republican Party or the opposition Democratic Party will sweep both houses of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. Yet even as Trump’s Thursday speech promoting debunked election conspiracy theories and attempts to rig the midterms suggests he fears Democrats will be the victors, these same experts say it could go either way.

“Forecasters say Democrats are favored to take the U.S. House this November while Republicans are favored to hold the Senate, yet the likeliest outcome is one party sweeping full control of Congress,” wrote The Center Square's Brett Rowland on Monday.

He added, “The split reflects two maps pulling in opposite directions: a House landscape tilted toward Democrats and a Senate field that favors Republicans. Yet Decision Desk HQ's forecast finds that a divided Congress, while possible, is less likely than a clean sweep by either party.”

Rowland then dug into the numbers, finding that in both chambers of Congress the balance of power could tip in either direction because the margins are so close.

“Sabato's Crystal Ball rates 213 seats safe, likely, or leaning Republican against 207 for Democrats, with 15 toss-ups left to decide control – a near-even split that underscores how much Republicans' mid-decade redistricting cushion still matters even in a year favoring Democrats,” Rowland wrote about the House of Representatives. “Republicans have the Senate advantage. Decision Desk HQ gives them a 59 [percent] chance of keeping the chamber.”

He added, “To seize it, Democrats would need to hold all 47 of their seats and flip four Republican ones. Forecasters agree the map runs through a familiar set of states. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate Maine and Alaska as toss-ups – though they differ on the rest, with Cook flagging Ohio and Sabato listing Michigan and Iowa. Both give Democrats an edge in North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper leads.”

Overall, Rowland reported “that generic ballot is the clearest read on the national mood, and it points to a favorable but not overwhelming year for Democrats. The RealClearPolitics average has Democrats up 4.7 points; Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin puts the edge at 6.1, down from a 7.1-point peak on June 1. Either way, the advantage trails where Democrats stood at this point in 2018, when the generic ballot sat at 7.6 points. That gap is a large part of why control of Congress remains genuinely uncertain.”

He added, “Democrats are favored for the House, Republicans for the Senate, yet Decision Desk HQ finds the likeliest outcome isn't the divided Congress those leanings imply, but a sweep by one party. Four months out, the forecasters just can't agree on which side will do the sweeping.”

Speaking with AlterNet in July, Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor also pointed out that Trump squandered an opportunity to shore up his approval rating during America’s 250th birthday celebrations. To illustrate his point, he contrasted Trump’s partisan approach to the celebration to how a different Republican, President Gerald Ford, was not partisan and wound up bouncing in the polls due to the rise in patriotism.

“It is to some degree an apples to oranges comparison, because Ford was on the ballot and Trump is not, and the country was also a lot different,” Kondik told AlterNet. “But I do think in the midst of a trying decade, Ford's positive messaging helped cut through the negativity and capitalized on good feelings about the bicentennial. But there were many other reasons Ford came back, including uncertainty about whether Carter was up to the task of being president.”

At the same time, Kondik also said Trump’s Republicans could benefit in the midterms for other reasons.

“His approval has bounced back many times over the years, so maybe that still happens for reasons that aren't immediately obvious,” Kondik told AlterNet.

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