Conservative says Trump nemesis has a real shot to win seat in deep-red state

Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, former Trump whistleblower and current Florida Senate candidate. (Image: Screengrab via Alexander S. Vindman)

Democrats have largely given up the hope of notching a major win in Florida anytime soon as the state solidifies its deep-red status, but according to one conservative writing for The Hill, one of President Donald Trump's many enemies has a legitimate shot at winning a seat in the Sunshine State.

Myra Adams is a regular contributor for The Hill who previously worked on the creative teams for Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008. In her latest piece from Friday, she advised that people should "expect the unexpected" when it comes to the results in the fast-approaching November midterms, and that includes a potential Democratic upset in Florida, the newest GOP stronghold state.

"Nationally, President Trump’s gloomy average job approval rating of 39 percent is linked to rising gas prices," Adams wrote. "Meanwhile, in his adopted home state of Florida, his approval is 43 percent, yet 70 percent of Floridians say they are 'falling behind' the cost of living. These figures do not bode well for an easy Senate race, which is currently ranked 'solid Republican' but likely to tighten."

She added: "In November 2024, Trump won Florida by a 13-point margin. Now, the appointed incumbent, Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), must appease the state’s irate electorate. Moody served as Florida’s attorney general until Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) tapped her in January 2025 to fill the Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio when named Secretary of State."

While Moody remains tipped to retain her seat for the time being, she is facing considerable competition from the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination: Alexander Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel who boasts a contentious history with Trump. In 2019, Vindman was one of the key whistleblowers who testified against Trump for the phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that ultimately led to his first impeachment.

Despite the red-state headwinds, Vindman has built up major momentum in the race, with "optimistic" internal polling numbers and nearly the same fundraising haul as Moody.

"The Vindman versus Moody race pits a Trump 'yes-woman' placeholder against an enemy of the president. Vindman suffered for what he believed was his patriotic duty," Adams wrote. "Vindman’s unique story could resonate with voters as Trump slides toward authoritarian rule, unleashing the Justice Department to reward his allies and punish his enemies. Florida is a red state, but Democrats have recently prevailed in several local races. local races."

Vindman is also not shying away from taking his message straight to GOP voters, vital in a state where the party has a major lead in voter registration. Adams noted how impressed she was to see him campaigning in The Villages, an epicenter for Florida's older, retired and white Republican voters. Those sorts of connections, she argued, "sound the MAGA alarms."

“When I say we are not just going to blue districts, but ruby red, too, I mean it," Vindman said. "It’s why I was in The Villages earlier this month, walking the line of people waiting to attend a Trump rally, connecting with registered Republicans who are also fed up with rising costs, corruption in D.C., and foolish wars of choice that are not just putting our service members’ lives at risk, but causing costs to skyrocket for families who are already struggling to get by.”

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