Trump about to face biggest test of his political career: 'Devastating to his image'

U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as he speaks to members of the media aboard Air Force One en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., March 29, 2026.

With a string of elections approaching fast amid the consequences of war and the president’s plummeting approval ratings, several key races across the country will be a test of whether voters like what they’ve seen or want a dramatic change of course. While many are watching the polls for the November midterms, according to Politico, several state and congressional contests in April and May will provide an early look at how Americans feel about President Donald Trump and his agenda.

First in April are two seemingly small but telling races: the special election runoff to replace former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene in North Georgia, as well as a Wisconsin election for the State Supreme Court.

In the case of the former, it shouldn’t even be close. “This is Trump country,” where he won by nearly 70 percent in 2024. But Democrat Shawn Harris has been performing surprisingly well in the district, and as Politico points out, if Trump-backed Clayton Fuller — who was unable to decisively beat Harris in the first round election — is unable to win by a double-digit margin, it is a bad sign for MAGA going into November.

And in Wisconsin — where Trump has an approval rating of just 26 percent among independents — the Republican candidate is already projected to lose, but should the Democratic candidate win by a large plurality, it should come as a warning to Trump.

But perhaps the biggest election to “test Trump’s clout” will come in May, when Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) has his seat contested by a Trump-backed Republican. Massie has arguably been Trump’s loudest critic among congressional Republicans, and now organizations that support the president have been piling money into the election in hopes of securing a loyalist victory.

Another May election that matters: that over the Louisiana senatorial seat currently held by Bill Cassidy (R-LA), whom the president wants removed due to his vote in favor of Trump’s impeachment in 2021. While Trump has thrown his weight behind a MAGA-backed challenger, Cassidy is still positioned to do well in the race.

At the same time, Trump is trying to take down Republican state senators in Indiana who opposed an order from the president to redraw electoral districts in a way that would create two new GOP seats in the House — an endeavor that local voters vocally opposed. These races, says Politico, will provide a hint at whether voters are more motivated by local interests or loyalty to Trump.

Across all these spring elections, says Politico, we’ll get a sense of where the country is headed in November.

“If some of those Republicans brandishing Trump’s support lose, or only win narrowly on otherwise MAGA-friendly terrain,” says Politico, “it will be devastating to the president’s image, drain him of political capital and accelerate a flight of GOP lawmakers on the Iran war and elements of his domestic agenda.”

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