President Donald Trump insists that the US economy is doing great, but according to a veteran markets journalist, he is guaranteeing food prices will go up through his recent invasion of Iran — and that will likely happen right in time for the 2026 midterm elections.
Bloomberg's John Authers is tracking global fertilizer vulnerability. “Even if the war ends next month, Brazil—the largest fertilizer importer—won't restock in time for the next soybean planting,” Bloomberg Magazine posted on X in reference to an article by veteran markets journalist John Authers. “Higher food prices will land in time for the US midterms.”
Authers is not the first non-Democrat to argue that the Republican president’s economy is on a downward spiral, one exacerbated by the war in Iran. Earlier in March Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett argued to The Wall Street Journal that “the longer this goes on, the worse it is politically, full stop.” Similarly a Republican senator, Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, said in a statement that “‘America first’ has now turned into America strikes first, that voters have a “general skepticism” about the Iran war and concluding “I also appreciate the fact that Donald Trump, the populist that he is, isn’t making national security decisions based on polls.”
Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, was more blunt than Cramer in his assessment of how the Iran war will impact the Trump economy.
"The bad news comes in two parts," Krugman argued in The New York Times. "First, any hopes that this war might be extremely brief are fading. The Trump Administration may have imagined that decapitating the Iranian government would bring swift regime change, but the Islamic state isn't a government of mere thugs — yes, they're evil thugs, but they're also serious religious fanatics facing what, for them, is an existential threat. And their grip on power isn't that easy to break…. Second, war in the middle of the world's most important oil-producing region — which is also a key source of liquefied natural gas — inevitably has major consequences for energy prices."
Earlier in March The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, which is normally sympathetic to Trump, characterized his economy as “lousy” and that given the ongoing Iran war he needs to lift his controversial tariffs to provide price relief.
“There’s no denying the February report was lousy,” The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board explained. “The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs and revised down gains for January and December by a combined 69,000. The question is what to make of the declines.”
Mona Charen, a conservative commentator for The Bulwark, has also argued that Trump’s tariffs are weighing down his economy.
“Voters are rarely able to connect policy to outcomes, but they have done so in the case of tariffs,” Charen argued. “Back in 2024, Americans were about equally divided on the question of trade, with some favoring higher tariffs and roughly similar numbers opting for lower tariffs. Experience has changed their views.”