Donald Trump and Melania Trump with Senate Majority Leader John Thune on January 8, 2025 (Wikimedia Commons)
Donald Trump's "purge" of his perceived enemies within the GOP may have been successful in displaying his continued power over the party, but come the midterm elections, it could prove costly for him, according to an analysis from The Hill.
In a piece published Tuesday morning, Chris Stirewalt, a political editor for The Hill, noted that of the 17 Republican members of the House and Senate who voted in favor of Trump's second impeachment, only three now remain in office, and only one — Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — is not facing a serious reelection challenge later this year. Murkowski, he added, might not have survived the 2022 midterms were it not for her state's unique electoral process.
The editor argued that "nothing speaks as powerfully of the president’s control of his party as the success of the impeachment purge," but also that, come November, this thinning of the moderate ranks could cost the Republicans even more than they are already expected to lose in the midterms.
As Stirewalt argued, "diversity" of viewpoints within a political party can help it stave off significant losses in tough election cycles, like the one the GOP is currently staring down amid Trump's mounting unpopularity. However, while a few moderates willing to push back against the president still exist, his purge of the party has left it more heavily tilted towards MAGA loyalists and more vulnerable to voter revolt.
"Diversity helps parties prevent wipeouts in difficult cycles, like this one is for Republicans, and maximizes gains in good years, as astute Democrats are hoping to do this year," Stirewalt explained. "Coalitional parties do make governing harder, but the same factions that frustrate also guard against delusional thinking that leads to devastating losses."
With Trump's approval with voters in a tailspin and scandals like the ICE/CBP operations in Minnesota making matters worse, Democrats are widely expected to deliver major wins in the 2026 midterms. Observers are largely in agreement that the party is likely to regain control of the House of Representatives, which the GOP controls now by an ever-shrinking margin.
As things get worse and worse for the GOP, Democrats' odds of retaking the Senate are also becoming stronger, though the prospect remains daunting for the party, which would have to hold onto every seat it currently holds and win four more from Republicans to secure a majority.