Republican pollster Frank Luntz on CNN on June 27, 2025 (YouTube Screengrab)
Legendary Republican strategist and GOP pollster Frank Luntz complains that President Donald Trump and the White House have flubbed their economic message in the final days leading into the midterms, and now there’s no hope of a course correction before disaster.
Luntz was particularly distraught over the warring opinions between Trump and Vice President JD Vance on the Trump economy’s impact on young Americans, with Vance saying recently that “most Republicans … don't pay enough attention to the affordability problems that are affecting young people.
But Trump appears to be is doubling down on his own rosy assessment of the economy with a Friday Truth Social post claiming “inflation is way down under “Trump.” Income for people and companies way up. The Golden Age of America is upon us.”
Luntz waved off inquiries by CNN anchor Boris Sanchez on Friday if he thought Vance's message of empathy was a good tactic.
“The message should have been delivered months ago, and that it's basically too late now,” said Luntz. “At this point, you're trying to turn out your voters and you're not trying to antagonize or excite the opposition.”
Luntz said Democrats now have a 2 percent advantage in turnout, meaning that races that are would have been decided by 1 percent or less will automatically go into the Democratic camp.
“And that matters in some of these Senate races that are absolutely so close to call that you can't distinguish them. And it could have an impact on three or four House races as well,” said Luntz. “The Democratic party has a strong, engaged, active core that are absolutely showing up to the polls. The Republican core still supports Donald Trump, but not with the same intensity. And we see that not just with younger voters, but all voters.”
Luntz said he was watching the Election Day behavior of “paycheck to paycheck” voters, who have “very little or no savings at the end of the month, people who are most affected by affordability.”
“These are individuals who voted for Donald Trump in record numbers. Not that he won them by a huge amount, but that Republicans normally did not attract that vote. But they came to him in 2024. And I'm watching to see how many of them leave him or look for a Democratic alternative in 2026,” said Luntz. “That will matter in Nebraska. That will matter in Kansas. It will matter, particularly in some of these midwestern states that are up for grabs right now.”
Luntz was equally troubled about the two thirds of white voters without a college degree that Trump won in all three presidential campaigns. A new Marist College poll now finds that 44 percent of these likely voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance. And Luntz fretted whether this was a temporary realignment or a plague on his party for years to come.
“These are people who have been loyal Democrats who shifted in 2024, and maybe that was the more significant election, because they seem to be heading back to the Democrats in 2026. I'm going to be following them, trying to understand why you would vote for president trump in 2024 and choose a Democratic candidate, either for governor or senator in 2026, because that's going to tell us about the election in 2028,” Luntz said.