Why a criminal conviction wouldn't necessarily doom 'hand grenade' Trump’s 2024 campaign

20 May 2024

If the cross examination of Michael Cohen concludes on Monday, May 20, the prosecution rests its case and Donald Trump's defense team doesn't call any witnesses, it is entirely possible that both sides will present their closing arguments the following day — after which, the Manhattan jury would begin deliberations. And what the jurors will ultimately decide remains to be seen.

If the jury convicts Trump, that wouldn't necessarily be the end of his 2024 presidential campaign.

In an article published on May 20, the New York Times' Shane Goldmacher examines the possibility of Trump being convicted on criminal charges yet plowing ahead with his campaign.

"There is little doubt that Mr. Trump's base is unlikely to abandon him now," Goldmacher explains. "Less clear is how swing voters or some of the traditional Democratic constituencies — younger, Black and Hispanic voters — who have expressed diminished support for (President Joe) Biden lately, and even flirted with Mr. Trump, would process a guilty verdict."

Veteran Republican strategist Mike Murphy, who has been highly critical of Trump, warns that tribalism can surpass facts in the United States' contentious political climate of 2024.

Murphy told the Times, "Who knows? The first casualty of the I'm-right-you're-evil politics of today is institutional credibility. We're not in the politics of accepting impartial facts anymore."

Democratic strategist Jim Margolis isn't sure that a "guilty" verdict would necessarily hurt Trump's 2024 campaign.

Margolis told the Times, "We've looked at a lot of polling that indicates a good chunk of voters would move away from Trump if he's convicted. I hope that turns out to be true. But if past is prologue, I don't think we count on that happening."

Goldmacher notes that if the jury votes "not guilty," Trump will declare that it was a "total exoneration." But if the jury votes guilty, Trump will claim "election interference."

GOP strategist Alex Castellanos emphasizes that Trump's army of supporters will view him as a victim if he is convicted.

"An acquittal would vindicate him," Castellanos told the Times, "and a guilty verdict would martyr him. And hey, that's how you start religions…. He can grab women by the p-word, he can say of John McCain 'I like heroes that haven't been captured,' and we all think this is the end of him, that this will hurt him. What does history tell us?"

The Republican strategist continues, "He really can shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it. Because it's not about him. It is about who he is there to stop. The reason he can eat kryptonite is he was elected to be the hand grenade underneath the establishment's door."

Read Shane Goldmacher's full New York Times report at this link (subscription required).

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