Top historian says 'the wheels are coming off the MAGA bus'

It’s been a chaotic week for President Donald Trump. One minute, CNN is reporting that negotiators between the U.S. and Iran seem on the verge of reaching a deal. Then in the next, Trump takes to social media to declare Tehran has “agreed to everything,” including to “never to close the Strait of Hormuz again.” Iranian officials then denied Trump’s claims, and promptly resumed attacks on ships in the strait.

According to renowned historian Heather Cox Richardson, this is evidence that Trump’s “vulnerability” is reaching new heights.

“There is the unmistakable feeling that the wheels are coming off the MAGA bus,” wrote Richardson. She cites plenty of examples of this beyond Trump’s bungling in Iran, but the war provides no shortage of evidence in itself. His exceptionally confused approach to negotiating is proof enough. Beyond the frequent daylight between the facts on the ground and Trump’s repeated assertions of a done deal, Richardson shared a particularly embarrassing detail regarding the negotiations.

On Tuesday, the president reposted an AI-generated image claiming that Iran was going to execute eight women, saying, “To the Iranian leaders who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!!” While it is true that Iran has been executing protesters, this particular post was a fabrication, and as David S. Bernstein of Good Politics/Bad Politics noted, Trump urged Iran “to start peace negotiations by releasing non-existent, AI-generated women some rando posted about on X.”

The list of Trump’s mistakes goes on, and as Richardson suggests, it’s unsurprising that Americans hate his handling of the situation, with a new poll showing that just 35 percent approve of his performance — a historic low. At the same time, 72 percent disapprove of his handling of rising prices, and 50 percent say they would vote Democrat in a generic ballot, versus 43 percent who would vote Republican.

With backlash impending at the ballot box, says Richardson, “Administration officials’ approach to the midterm elections seems to be to continue to sow distrust of elections.” Embattled FBI Director Kash Patel said on Sunday that arrests were coming in relation to Trump’s loss in the 2020 election, which he claims was stolen. At the same time, Trump officials are demanding voter records from districts where Trump lost.

What’s more, Trump is starting (and losing) fights with the Pope, posting AI-generated photos of himself as Jesus, and delivered a reading of 2 Chronicles 7:11–22 from the Oval Office: “The same verse was read by Cowboys for Trump founder Couy Griffin at the January 6, 2021, insurrection, and is associated with white evangelicals’ belief God sent Trump to heal America.” And on top of all that, Trump’s deportation agenda is receiving pushback in the courts, a handful of Congressional Republicans have stymied his legislative efforts by voting against them, and a nationwide redistricting battle (which was launched by the GOP in the first place) has just netted Democrats more seats in the House due to a referendum that passed in Virginia.

According to Richardson, all of these are signs of Trump's “vulnerability” —and that MAGA could implode in the November midterms.