U.S. President Donald Trump, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during the G7 Summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, June 17, 2026. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
The "madman theory" of politics argues that when a leader comes across as unhinged and volatile, adversaries will back down — as they don't know what the person will do. That theory was applied to U.S. President Donald Trump during the Iran war, with some of his supporters arguing that he would come out on top because Iranian leaders would be genuinely afraid of him. But according to NOTUS reporters Akbar Shahid Ahmed and Jasmine Wright, Trump's ceasefire agreement with Iran underscores the fatal flaws of the "madman theory."
"President Donald Trump has handled his war on Iran with his signature brand of unpredictability, veering from threatening 'a whole civilization will die' to cheering diplomacy and Iranian freedom," Ahmed and Wright explain in a NOTUS article. "It's not clear how much he'll have to show for it. The U.S. and Iran are expected to begin talks soon toward a permanent end to the war. They have 59 days to agree on contentious issues, including Iran's nuclear program, economic sanctions and a new regional arrangement governing the Strait of Hormuz."
The NOTUS reporters add, "It's a particularly delicate period, but Trump remains deeply volatile. The negotiations will test the 'madman theory' of foreign policy the president leans on: assuming adversaries will cave because they don’t know how far he will go. They will also test whether U.S. officials can reach mutually agreeable terms when their boss might shift the goalposts at any time — an especially significant task given how massive the global cost of resuming conflict with Iran has become."
Alan Eyre, a former diplomat, recalls that President Richard Nixon articulated the "madman theory" during the Vietnam War. And Eyre told NOTUS that Trump "is doing what he does because he can't do otherwise, and that's the biggest threat."
Eyre added, "He has no strategic messaging.… He's going to sabotage negotiations, not just by moving red lines, which I think he probably will do, but by saying stuff in the media that's going to have an effect."
Wendy Sherman, who helped negotiate former President Barack Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, believes that Iranian leaders will "go into this thinking they have the upper hand." And she argues that the "madman theory" is proving "toothless" with Trump and Iran.
Sherman told NOTUS, "Initially, there was belief by some that the madman approach might work, but it has been shown to be toothless. At the end of the day. Trump has agreed to a bad deal because the war didn't turn out the way he wanted it to."