No landslide: Analysis further shreds claim that Trump election victory is a 'mandate'

29 November 2024

Many supporters of President-elect Donald Trump have repeatedly described his narrow victory over Vice President Kamala Harris as a "mandate," and some have even used the word "landslide."

But according to Cook Political Report, the size of Trump's win is hardly a "landslide." Although Trump performed well in the Electoral College — winning 312 electoral votes compared to 226 for Harris — he won the popular vote by roughly 1.5 or 1.6 percent.

President Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932 were landslides; Trump in 2024 was a narrow win of less than 2 percent.

In an article published by the conservative website The Bulwark on November 29, journalist Will Saletan lays out some reasons why it's misleading to describe Trump's victory over Harris as a "mandate."

"It's normal to say you have a mandate after winning an election," Saletan explains. "Trump's staff did as much after the 2016 election, when he didn't even win the popular vote. If the claim is believed this time around, it could intimidate Democrats and embolden Republicans in Congress. But when you look closely at what voters actually think, there's no mandate for a Trump agenda."

Saletan continues, "Two massive polls of the 2024 electorate — the network exit poll and the VoteCast survey used by Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, and other outlets — show that Trump won the election because voters rejected the status quo and had positive memories of his first term. But on most issues, they oppose what Republicans want to do in his second term.

The Bulwark journalist delves into specific issues, noting that the majority of voters, according to polls, disagree with Trump's policies on abortion and health care. And on energy, most voters favor expanding the use of green energy, including wind and solar — while Trump is heavily focused on fossil fuels.

"No serious person disputes that Trump won the election," Saletan argues. "He got the Electoral College and a plurality of the popular vote. But that doesn't mean most people who cast ballots in this election were giving him a mandate to pursue his party's agenda. According to the only surveys that polled them, they weren't."

Will Saletan's full article for The Bulwark is available at this link.

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