U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he departs for travel to Texas to tour areas affected by deadly flash flooding, from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 11, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
Although Democrats perform well in some of Texas' congressional districts and dominate major urban centers like Houston, Austin and El Paso, they haven't won a statewide race in the Lone Star State since the 1990s. But with the 2026 midterms drawing closer, Texas is, according to polls, seeing a surprisingly close U.S. Senate race that finds GOP State Attorney General Ken Paxton up against centrist Democratic nominee James Talarico. And according to the conservative National Review, the "stench" of "desperation" is evident in recent GOP fundraising e-mails on Paxton's behalf.
"It can be hazardous to read too much into political fundraising e-mails," conservative journalist Dan McLaughlin cautions in a National Review column. "Hyperbole, deceptive tactics, ALL CAPS, colorful fonts, and a reek of desperation come constantly from these e-mails from both parties. Still, we can see something from the trendlines. Just one e-mail vendor, repdailyred.com, has spammed my inbox with over 300 e-mails since June. Since August 21 — a period of 25 days — they've sent me solicitations for four GOP Senate campaigns (each of which at least claims to be a message paid for by the campaign): one for Susan Collins, four for Michele Tafoya, 43 for Jon Husted, and 104 for Ken Paxton."
The "weekly pace" for the "Paxton e-mails," according to McLaughlin, went from two on August 22 to nine from August 23–30 to 36 from August 31–September 6 to 58 from September 7–13.
"The stench of flop sweat is thick," McLaughlin observes. "The barrage undoubtedly reflects not only the fear in the campaign and in official circles over Paxton's perilous state, but also, that this fear has sufficiently escaped official Washington that recipients of these e-mails are responding to them. Still, after widespread criticism of Paxton's lackluster and lackadaisical fundraising, at least somebody is putting in some effort."
The National Review writer adds, "Meanwhile, per David Nir and Jeff Singer at The Downballot, the cavalry is coming in to try to rescue Paxton, bearing barrelfuls of money that (Sen.) John Cornyn wouldn't have needed, and which will now not be spent on Husted or other endangered Republicans."
Some recent polls are showing Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, with small single-digit leaders over far-right Paxton — who President Donald Trump endorsed over incumbent Sen. Cornyn in a brutal GOP U.S. Senate primary.
In late August, a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll found Talarico ahead by 3 percent, while a September poll from SoCal Strategies showed Talarico with a 5 percent lead.