Trump's 'casual betrayal' gives Democrats their best chance at an upset in 40 years

Democrats winning a major statewide election in Texas has long been seen as a long shot, but according to a new breakdown from The Atlantic, President Donald Trump's recent "casual betrayal" of an endorsement has given the party its best chance at an upset in decades.

Prior to this week, Trump had resisted calls to endorse a candidate in Texas's GOP Senate primary. Many in the party had urged him to back Rep. John Cornyn, more so a traditional conservative than a Trump loyalist, who polls indicated had the best chance of holding the seat in the midterms. Trump, however, was said to be leaning more towards endorsing Ken Paxton, a staunch MAGA supporter, despite the fact that his long list of scandals while serving as Texas Attorney General has made him notably unpopular in the state.

In the eleventh hour on Tuesday, Trump officially opted to endorse Paxton, sending shockwaves of panic and doubt throughout the GOP. The move came on the heels of several primary victories over incumbents for Trump-backed challengers, perhaps empowering the president to try and continue flexing his control over the MAGA base.

According to The Atlantic, however, that could very well backfire in Texas.

"By choosing Paxton, the president is rewarding his—and his base’s—unwavering devotion," The Atlantic's Friday report explained. "He is likely also guaranteeing Paxton a primary victory over Cornyn. And in so doing, Trump may have cemented a set of very difficult circumstances for his party. If Paxton wins on Tuesday, Democrats will probably be better positioned to win statewide in Texas than they’ve been in the past 40 years."

The report added later: "Paxton’s supporters can rattle off Cornyn’s sins without even pausing to think: He was slow to endorse Trump in 2016, and wasn’t enthusiastic enough about Trump’s efforts to build the border wall. Worse, he voted with Democrats to pass a gun-control package after the 2022 school shooting in Uvalde. He is, in short, a RINO, or Republican in Name Only. Paxton’s advertising campaign against Cornyn has been ugly. This month, the attorney general put out an ad arguing that the incumbent senator supports 'Muslim mass immigration' and featuring Cornyn saying 'Inshallah.'"

Democrats, meanwhile, have fielded what experts and observers have deemed to be one of their better candidates for the job in state Rep. James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian who has centered his messaging on his religion and economic issues like affordability. Strategists had tipped Cornyn as better-suited to handle the challenge, given his "ability to fundraise and his palatability among general-election voters." A Paxton win next week, the Cook Political Report confirmed, would make this "a fully competitive race."

"This is, of course, the outcome that many Republicans dread most," The Atlantic added. "That Paxton will be unable to win over the moderate Republican and independent voters he’ll need to succeed in November—and that Texas will make Talarico the first Democratic senator it’s elected since 1988."