Trump hits 93-year low in longtime GOP stronghold: CNN data expert

U.S. President Donald Trump places a hand over his heart during a Veterans Day ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., November 11, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

President Donald Trump’s approval rating in the longtime Republican stronghold of Kansas has fallen to a level not seen in roughly 93 years, as the GOP pivots PAC money to hold a Senate seat it has not lost since 1932.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Monday that Trump is now 15 points underwater in Kansas, a dramatic reversal from the same point in his first term, when his net approval rating in the state stood at plus 5, which is a drastic 20-point shift away from Trump.

Trump is also 16 points less popular than any other Republican president at the same stage of a presidency this century, Enten said.

“I would say Donald Trump is probably at this point in his term the least popular Republican president since Herbert Hoover,” Enten said. Hoover left office in 1933. The data comes into play because Kansas has unexpectedly become one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.

A New York Times/Siena University poll released Friday showed Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall tied at 45 percent, with Libertarian David Graham at 3 percent. The historic numbers keep piling up and show how deep-red Kansas has been, as it has not elected a Democrat in 94 years.

Hamilton, the longtime pastor who founded the Church of the Resurrection in the Kansas City area, also recorded a net favorability rating of plus 12 in the Times/Siena polling. Enten said that was the strongest favorability rating among candidates tested in major Senate contests.

In response, the Republicans have been spending millions on a race which normally attracts much less attention. As CNN anchor John Berman pointed out, Senate Republicans are spending around $14 million in Kansas to get ahead of Hamilton.

Enten said Kansas has also gradually become less Republican than the rest of the country. Based on the average of the past two presidential elections, 17 states are now more Republican than Kansas. During the 2004 and 2008 election cycles, only seven were.

“It’s still leaning Republican, but not anywhere near as Republican as it once was,” Enten said.

Those changes, combined with Trump’s numbers and Hamilton’s popularity, have created an unusual situation in a state Republicans have dominated in Senate elections for generations.

“This to me is potentially a mathematical perfect storm,” Enten said.

The result, he added, could be a Kansas Senate race unlike anything the state has seen in nearly a century.

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