Trump has doomed his MAGA successors to a 'nightmare scenario': analysis

Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner applaud as President Trump reacts at the inaugural Board of Peace meeting in Washington, D.C., February 19, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Donald Trump has left his potential successors at the head of the MAGA movement with a "nightmare scenario" to contend with, according to an analysis from The i Paper's James Ball, potentially dooming their chances of success.

Writing in a piece published on Tuesday, Ball focused on the potentially impossible balancing act Vice President JD Vance would have to manage if he means to run for president in 2028, which he wants "with every fiber of his being." It is an "impossible dilemma" that could ensnare anyone looking to follow in Trump's footsteps following his disastrous second term, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Given his persistent unpopularity with voters and lack of almost any "natural charisma," Ball argued that Vance's best shot at getting the GOP nomination for president will be Trump's endorsement, which still holds massive sway over the Republican voting base. Trump has so far not committed to supporting his vice president in 2028, with past trends indicating that he will only do so if Vance shows unflinching loyalty towards him.

This, Ball argued further, will put Vance and any other MAGA successor in a serious bind. Voters have grown increasingly sick of Trump's antics during his second term, and will more than likely reject anyone closely associated with it. A similar phenomenon was credited with tanking Kamala Harris's 2024 campaign, as voters soured on her connections to the unpopular Biden administration.

To get Trump's prized nomination, however, the prospective candidates will need to show fealty and heap praise on the president's accomplishments. While that might work within the confines of a Republican primary, it could be disastrous during a general election with voters looking to move past Trump.

"Vance needs to be seen as the designated successor, but also not responsible for any of the failures of a second Trump term, or at least not the ones the core MAGA base care about," Ball wrote. "That is a delicate needle for the Vice President to thread: he needs to look ultra-loyal, he needs to keep a high profile among Republican activists, but he needs not to be tied to the administration’s failures."

Ball noted that Trump's new war with Iran is likely to make this problem even worse for both Vance and Rubio, with the vice president flouting his past isolationist stances in order to support the president, and the secretary of state stuck as a highly visible figurehead managing the conflict.

"JD Vance doesn’t have any good options on Iran, but he can hope that Marco Rubio’s are worse," Ball concluded. "As Secretary of State, Rubio can’t hide from the Iran crisis nearly so much as the Vice President can. Perhaps that is Vance’s great hope in all of this. He can’t outrun the war, but he might be able to outrun Rubio."

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