Since launching war against Iran, President Donald Trump has gradually shifted tens of thousands of troops to the Middle East. Now upon the latest news that he’s sent another 6,000 amidst failing peace negotiations, a respected international security expert has a warning for the president: be wary of the “escalation trap.”
“Victory rhetoric is noise — Troop movements are signal,” posted Robert A. Pape, Political Science Professor at the University of Chicago and author of two books on military strategy, warning that the “US is getting deeper into the Escalation Trap.”
Pape is referring to a pattern the U.S. has seen play out in conflicts around the world repeatedly over the past 80 years.
In the early years of the Vietnam War, for example, American troop numbers were low, growing from around 800 to 23,000 between 1959-1964 before exploding up to 184,000 one year later, reaching a high of nearly 540,000 in 1968, and finally withdrawing in 1973. Then in Afghanistan, U.S. troop levels grew gradually to 30,000 between 2002-2008, before leaping up to 110,000 by 2011, leaving after nearly 20 years in 2020. In the second Iraq War, the American military showed up in force more or less from the beginning in 2003, expected the conflict to end quickly, famously “surged” troop numbers up to nearly 170,000 four years later hoping to force a conclusion, but continued fighting for another several years.
Because of this legacy of escalatory wars that drag on for years of even decades, many in the U.S. have learned to be wary of such military adventures.
Now Trump is sending 6,000 troops aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush along with another 4,200 amphibious troops arriving later in the month. That suggests an approaching coastal invasion, boots on the ground, and a protracted fight.
Regardless, Trump continues to declare that “we’ve won” while negotiations flounder as the end of the already tenuous two-week ceasefire approaches. Few seem to agree with the president, with even members of his own party expressing doubt over declaring "mission accomplished."
“We will not have won,” said Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) on Sunday, “until we have completely defanged the Iranian regime.” He offered a long list of conditions that he says would need to be met — from halting nuclear weapon production to reopening the Strait of Hormuz — admitting, “We have not yet finished the job.”