Trump walked straight into a trap he saw coming —and couldn't stop himself: analyst

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media as he departs the White House for Florida, in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 20, 2026. REUTERS Nathan Howard

How do you tumble into a sandpit that you’ve learned to spot in front of others? You’ll have to ask President Donald Trump, says MS NOW analyst Steve Benen, because Trump identified the exact same trap into which he’s now managed to blunder.

“Shortly before Election Day 2012, then-television personality Donald Trump wrote via social media, ‘Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin — watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate,’” said Benen.

A year later, Benen said Trump put out another crystal ball prediction amid concerns about a possible U.S. confrontation with Iran.

“Remember what I previously said — Obama will someday attack Iran in order to show how tough he is.” Trump tweeted.

“More than a decade later, the missives are easy to mock,” said Benen, “but the future president’s online messages revealed an underlying belief: Presidents who launch wars, Trump suggested, should expect to see an improvement in their public standing.”

His assumption wasn’t altogether absurd, said Benen. Polls have shown a “rally around the flag” effect in the immediate aftermath of a military offensive abroad. So, Trump somehow took to heart the lesson that launching a war would broadcast strength while somehow missing his earlier wisdom that launching an Iran war could put both the nation and his nemesis Obama in a tough spot.

Benen said the need for a quick show of strength appeared to be brewing inside Trump’s head weeks before he launched his official attack on Iran.

“A few days before launching the war, Trump did something he rarely does,” said Benen. “He acknowledged his poor public standing. At a White House event, Trump briefly conceded, ‘It just amazes me that there’s not more support out there.’”

And then came his attack, and all the problems it predictably brought. A month later, Benen said Trump did not get the benefit of a rally around the flag boost, with Reuters reporting Trump’s approval falling “to its lowest point since he returned to the White House,” thanks to the resulting surge in fuel prices and widespread disapproval of the war.

“A month later, his support has gone from bad to worse,” said Benen. “Republican officials and candidates who are concerned about their prospects in the 2026 midterm elections would be wise to take note.”

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