'Bad news' as Trump’s 'wishful thinking' threatens an even greater crisis

U.S. President Donald Trump's war with Iran, according to countless polls, is a major vulnerability for Republicans in the 2026 midterms — especially in light of the soaring fuel prices the war is bringing. But according to the UK-based i Paper, Trump is facing an "extraordinary new crisis" in the Middle East that could be even worse for him than the war with Iran.

Trump maintains that it was necessary to go to war against Iran in late February in order to prevent the country's Islamist regime from developing nuclear weapons. But critics of the war argue that it has created greater instability in the Middle East, both militarily and economically. And in the i Paper, journalist Paul Wood (a former BBC foreign correspondent) details the political/energy crisis that is growing in the Middle East and has major economic implications.

"This is not yet the oil shock of 1973, more of an oil squeeze," Wood explains in the i Paper. "In 1973, the Arab embargo quadrupled the price; in 1979, the Iranian revolution doubled it; with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Brent crude reached $139 (£103) a barrel. On Monday, the price of a barrel of Brent crude reached $109.80 (£81). And while the Houthis have already said the Bab al-Mandab Strait is closed to Saudi shipping, they have yet to declare a wider blockade. The White House is indulging in some wishful thinking about the prospects of avoiding this. Visiting Dublin at the weekend, Trump said: 'The Houthis called us, and they don't want to fight with us … They don't want us to go after them.'"

According to Wood, "the Houthis are armed and funded by Iran."

"Even if they don't take orders from Tehran," the reporter notes, "they coordinate. It wouldn't take much to halt the oil tankers — a single militiaman firing a rocket-propelled grenade from the shore, perhaps. If shipping stops using Bab al-Mandab — because of soaring insurance premiums, for instance — the economic pain would be considerable. A UN report in 2023 found that almost 9 per cent of global trade by sea passes through the strait. That includes a fifth of all containers and new cars and 13 per cent of crude oil … To add to the bad news, the main east-west pipeline carrying oil in Saudi Arabia was hit by drones over the past week."

Wood warns that tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia could have dire economic consequences. If "Saudi pipelines and refineries" are attacked by Houthis, according to Wood, the "Saudi economy could be crippled."

"If that's what happens," Wood reports, "the question for the U.S. will be how long it can stay out of the war in Yemen … The economic consequences of allowing Iran — through the Houthis — to hold Saudi Arabia to ransom might simply be too great to ignore. This latest crisis was always a possibility after the fateful decision by Trump to join Israel in attacking Iran. He has learned since that it's easy to start fires in the Middle East, but not to put them out."