After President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran failed to achieve any of his stated goals, his strategy shifted to emphasize economic pressure that he hopes will force capitulation. But according to new reporting from Politico, his plan has resulted in little more than mockery from the Iranian regime, and it’s unlikely to achieve anything more.
“Trump is waiting for Iran to cave to his economic pressure,” Politico explains. “Tehran may be willing to wait even longer. Even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promises a level of economic isolation ‘never seen before,’ former Trump administration officials, U.S. ambassadors and other Middle East experts are skeptical that tightening the economic vise will force Iran to relinquish its desire to toll ships passing through the State of Hormuz and make the other concessions Trump is demanding to bring an end to the war.”
“It’s an attrition campaign, and I am sure Treasury tweaks this or that to fill gaps or expand coverage of sanctions,” former ambassador James Jeffrey – who served in the Middle East during three presidential administrations, including Trump’s first term – told Politico. “But, it’s hard to believe [there will be] something decisive after 20 years of U.S. sanctions and Iranian experience of going around them.”
His statement highlights the asymmetry of the stand-off. As Politico explains, “The Trump administration is staring down a consequential midterm election amid an unpopular war that has sent oil prices back up to roughly $90 a barrel and helped push long-term borrowing costs to their highest level in nearly two decades as hope dims that a peace deal is near. Iran’s leaders, meanwhile, see the conflict as existential, giving Tehran reason to absorb the extraordinary economic pain rather than accept terms it believes could imperil the regime — especially as U.S. inflation remains elevated.”
According to Politico, former administration officials warn that Iran has an outsized incentive to muscle through the pain, making the success of Trump’s blockage strategy dubious. “I think the economic pressure would need to hit them in new ways we haven’t seen so far to change the mindset of the regime,” one former Trump administration official told Politico.
What’s more, Iranian leadership has been bluntly dismissive of Trump’s plan, and publicly mocked U.S. efforts to sanction them into submission. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, posted, “Americans think squeezing Iran harder will win concessions that were never part of the agreement.” He added, “Bessent and [Defense Secretary Pete] Hegseth are way out of their league. Stop waiting for the clown crew to pull a rabbit out of their hat and clean up the mess you made.”
While the Iranian economy has undoubtedly taken a severe hit, according to Politico, “those who have worked on previous Iran negotiations say that’s far from enough to get the regime to cave, especially after six months of U.S. bombing that has killed, by Tehran’s own measure, more than 3,000 Iranians.” As Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group’s Iran project director, who helped work to bridge differences between Iran and world powers during negotiations over the 2015 nuclear agreement, explained, “It’s undeniable that there is economic pressure. The question is whether there is a breaking point, and I would say for a regime that is fighting for its life and has never hesitated to transfer economic pain to its population, there is no breaking point.”