Conservatives reveal 'political extinction event' Trump can't outrun

President Donald Trump arrives to speak about the Iran war from the Cross Hall of the White House on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in Washington. Alex Brandon/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

There is a "political extinction event" coming for President Donald Trump, and according to the conservative hosts at The Bulwark, it is a crisis that seems primed to engulf the administration — and the world — for years to come.

Speaking on the latest edition of their show, "The Next Level," the outlet's contributor discussed the grim reality underpinning the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a direct consequence of Trump's disastrous war with Iran. As fast as oil prices can rise after a disruption like that, they take even longer to go back down once the issue is resolved. Bulwark publisher Sarah Longwell cited a statistic estimating that for every day of the closure, it will take another week for things to return to prior levels, meaning that the inflation brought on by the crisis is already likely to take well over a year to recede.

Even worse, host Tim Miller cited a recent prediction from the neoconservative think-tank, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which suggested that keeping up the current military blockade of Iran for another 8-9 weeks could finally cause "total economic collapse" for Iran and its government. Such a situation, he surmised, would cause stratospheric gas prices well into the 2028 election season.

Some other experts, he added, have warned of the possibility that gas prices could climb "exponentially" if shortages become severe enough that oil buyers have to start outbidding each other for the dwindling supply.

"It's insane that these guys are still listening to people that are pushing [Trump] in a direction that's gonna cause major economic pain," Miller said. "If they keep listening to [FDD and others]... the 'Bush line' is gonna be in the rearview mirror. Like, we're gonna get Trump down into single digits [approval ratings]."

"The Bush line" refers to the approval rating threshold of 32 percent, which George W. Bush left office with in 2009, which led to a prolonged period in which Republicans struggled to regain the presidency. Longwell herself tweeted about the line in March, when Trump dipped to a 36 percent rating. Some recent polls have him as low as 34 percent.

"George W. Bush left office with a 32% approval rating," Longwell wrote in the post. "That was enough to cost Republicans two Prez elections, but more importantly left the party so weak that Trump was able to hijack it and turn it into something completely different. I want to see Trump at 32%. The Bush line."

Elsewhere in the episode, Longwell also warned that the American people have a famously low threshold for economic discomfort, and will likely revolt against Trump harder if these predictions come to pass and they experience hardships like those in Europe and Asia currently are. This uncomfortable truth, she argued, is something that Iran is well aware of, and are using as leverage against the U.S. in negotiations."

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