Trump’s 'dominance in the GOP' doesn't erase possible general election weaknesses: conservative

17 January 2024

Non-MAGA conservatives who were hoping that the GOP would distance itself from Donald Trump were seriously disappointed by the outcome of the 2024 Iowa Caucuses, which found Trump winning more votes than rivals Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy combined (Ramaswamy has since dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump).

In a November 17 column for The Bulwark, Never Trump conservative Charlie Sykes stresses that although the Iowa Caucuses underscore Trump's stranglehold on the Republican Party, they also expose possible vulnerabilities in the general election.

"Lest there was any lingering doubt, the Iowa Caucuses confirmed Trump's dominance in the GOP," Sykes argues. "He crushed his opposition and is now described as basking in the momentum of his landslide. He bestrides a supine Republican Party like a colossus, and petty men beg his favor."

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Sykes continues, "But that's only part of the story, and perhaps not the most important one. Iowa also revealed just how weak Trump may be in the general election."

The conservative journalist goes on to cite some Iowa-related figures that show how Trump might perform against Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden if he wins the GOP nomination.

According to Sykes' Bulwark colleague Joe Perticone, the turnout at the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, January 15 was "just over 110,000 Republicans" — whereas in 2016, "that number was nearly 187,000, around 70 percent higher."

Sykes observes, "Only about 14-15 reports of GOP voters showed up, which means that Trump's landslide total comprised about 8 percent of Iowa Republicans. A substantial number of Republican voters are signaling that they are Never Trump. NBC reports that nearly half of Haley's Iowa backers say they'd vote for Biden over Trump."

The columnist adds, "As Mona Charen noted yesterday, the pre-Caucus poll by the Des Moine Register found that fully 25 percent of Iowa Republican Caucus-goers say they won't vote for Trump in November."

Sykes also notes reporting by Axios, which pointed out that "while 65 percent of Caucus-goers said they would still consider Trump fit for president if he were convicted of a crime, 31 percent said they would not."

Charlie Sykes' full column for The Bulwark is available at this link.

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