Trump gets an ugly October surprise at the worst possible time

President Donald Trump speaks while hosting a dinner in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., September 2, 2026. REUTERS Evelyn Hockstein

President Donald Trump has been hit with a fresh blow with an unwelcome October surprise just before the midterms, which contradicts his final pitch to American voters on the campaign trail.

Within a week of the president declaring that “prices are coming down very fast,” inflation is climbing again, and the latest numbers from his government are much worse than economists projected.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, up from 3.4% in August, while economists had anticipated 3.6%. During the month, prices rose 0.6%, up from 0.4% in August.

This is the final inflation report before voters make their decision on November 3. This presents a new challenge for the president and Republicans, battling to keep their majority in Congress to convince voters that the economy is doing fine.

Most of the increase came from gasoline, which rose a whopping 9.1% in a single month and was 34.2% higher than a year earlier. In total, energy costs climbed 5.2% for the month and 20.4% annually, per the Labor Department figures.

Core inflation rose to 2.6% annually from 2.4%, and shelter costs increased 0.4% in September. Airfares, used cars, and recreation got pricier, but food prices, however, were flat for the month, with grocery prices coming down slightly.

At the G7 summit in June, Trump claimed that the U.S. has “the strongest economy we've ever had” and called affordability a “fake word made up by the Democrats.” During a Pennsylvania rally in December 2025, he also called affordability a hoax. However, he has toned down that rhetoric at the campaign rally amid voter backlash.

Poll after poll has shown that Americans care about the prices of everyday goods that affect their lives. A CBS News poll released earlier this month found nine in 10 Americans said prices are the No. 1 factor in determining their view of the American economy.

The promises are clashing with the reality that families are spending more on essentials while their incomes struggle to keep up. Per an MS Now report, the price of goods is outpacing workers' salaries for the last five months.

From a political standpoint, the timing could not be worse: Trump is trying to reassure voters about the economy with fewer than three weeks to go, but the next CPI report won't arrive until Nov. 10, a week after Election Day.

The September figures will therefore be the last official look at consumer inflation voters will have before they decide who will control Congress.

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